500 N Tully Rd · Turlock, CA 95380

$99,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,616 sqft · Land public records · 160 Days on market

Built 2003 $28/sqft · 100% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Space 110! Perfectly secluded 2 bed, 2 bath home in Westfork Estates. Home features Great Room concept with Cathedral ceiling, Covered carport, Storage Shed, and indoor laundry room. Nice community offering Pool, Clubhouse, Games, and TV. Located in the last space so traffic is minimal. Don't miss your chance to live in this great community!

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Great room concept
• Storage shed

Tags

• GREAT ROOM CONCEPT
• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.87%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $8,416,655
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -98.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $23,654
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $64,020
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95380

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,492/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,500 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,500 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,500 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,500 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,500 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 149 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,492
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $6,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,648
• After-tax cash flow: $6,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turlock Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600158
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,249
• Composite: 26.58/100
• National rank: #7184
• State rank: #334 of 517 in CA

Livability — Turlock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #11971

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turlock, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 83,043
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,960
• Household income: $74,534
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 14% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -614.27%
• Current HPI: 307.7264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $54,911 · +49.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.