48600 Anchor Ave · Nessel, MN 55080

$360,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,072 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 20 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on nearly 20 natural and wooded acres in scenic Nessel Township near Goose Lake and Rush Lake, this property offers a rare opportunity for renovation or rebuilding in a private, secluded setting. Trails wind through the woods, and the expanded deck overlooks peaceful wetlands and abundant wildlife. The home features a walkout basement, wood stove with baseboard heat, and a 1976 addition with block basement that added significant square footage. The original front portion showcases turn-of-the-century hand-hewn log cabin beam walls. Recent improvements include a new septic system, siding, and metal roof in 2020. The layout includes a main-floor bedroom with walk-in closet and 3/4 bath, plus three spacious upper-level bedrooms and a full bath. A unique property offering flexibility, land, and long-term potential.

Key facts

• Expanded deck
• Walkout basement
• Wood stove

Tags

• NATURAL WOODED ACRES
• PRIVATE SECLUDED SETTING
• EXPANDED DECK
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• WOOD STOVE
• HAND-HEWN LOG CABIN BEAM WALLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $836 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $360k).
• Recommended offer: $338k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Braham Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #170 of 301 in MN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $338,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.95%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-5,041
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $64,412
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55080

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,400/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$884
• Net cashflow: $836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,149

Max offer price $360,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $360,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $360,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-03-28
    historical

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Set on nearly 20 natural and wooded acres in scenic Nessel Township near Goose Lake and Rush Lake, this property offers a rare opportunity for renovation or rebuilding in a private, secluded setting. Trails wind through the woods, and the expanded deck overlooks peaceful wetlands and abundant wildlife. The home features a walkout basement, wood stove with baseboard heat, and a 1976 addition with block basement that added significant square footage. The original front portion showcases turn-of-the-century hand-hewn log cabin beam walls. Recent improvements include a new septic system, siding, and metal roof in 2020. The layout includes a main-floor bedroom with walk-in closet and 3/4 bath, plus three spacious upper-level bedrooms and a full bath. A unique property offering flexibility, land, and long-term potential.

17. 2026-03-28
    listed $360,000 Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Set on nearly 20 natural and wooded acres in scenic Nessel Township near Goose Lake and Rush Lake, this property offers a rare opportunity for renovation or rebuilding in a private, secluded setting. Trails wind through the woods, and the expanded deck overlooks peaceful wetlands and abundant wildlife. The home features a walkout basement, wood stove with baseboard heat, and a 1976 addition with block basement that added significant square footage. The original front portion showcases turn-of-the-century hand-hewn log cabin beam walls. Recent improvements include a new septic system, siding, and metal roof in 2020. The layout includes a main-floor bedroom with walk-in closet and 3/4 bath, plus three spacious upper-level bedrooms and a full bath. A unique property offering flexibility, land, and long-term potential.

18. 2025-12-22
    listed $460,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$5,400
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,039
• − Management: −$4,039
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable income: $4,570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,097
• After-tax cash flow: $8,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen, bathroom, and flooring, which would significantly increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — poor condition
• Major bathroom wallpaper — poor condition
• Major flooring — dated and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and backsplash — modernizing the kitchen
• Resale update bathroom fixtures and wallpaper — modernizing the bathroom
• Resale replace flooring — modernizing the flooring

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom wallpaper · poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and backsplash — modernizing the kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures and wallpaper — modernizing the bathroom ↑
• Resale replace flooring — modernizing the flooring ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Braham Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2706060
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,333
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3987
• State rank: #170 of 301 in MN

Livability — Nessel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,353
• Population (ZIP): 3,281

Population outlook (Chisago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,187 people
• By 2030: 55,036 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 53,293 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 49,157 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 38,399 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 24,646 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Romanian 8% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Chisago

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.2 2016: R+30.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.23%
• Current HPI: 336.3158
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-21.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $360,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Listed $460,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid