2049 Big Pass Ln · Burnt Store Marina, FL 33955

$538,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,591 sqft · Condo public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1995 $359/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated and thoughtfully improved, this stunning 3 bed, 2 bath pool home delivers exceptional style and value at an attractive price. Designed for effortless open-concept living, the light-filled great room seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen spaces. Notice the wonderful natural light and tropical views from all the new windows and sliders. The redesigned kitchen features a wide granite breakfast bar, abundant counter space, custom cabinetry with pull-out shelving, premium KitchenAid stainless appliances, and striking wood-plank tile flooring. Whether preparing an intimate dinner or entertaining a crowd, this space was designed to bring people together. The spaci

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Natural light
• Quartz breakfast bar

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• REDESIGNED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ BREAKFAST BAR
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• PREMIUM KITCHENAID APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Directions: Burnt Store Rd to main marina entrance; through guard gate to Big Pass Lane; right, then left into first cul-de-sac; home at end
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported ($4,314) and total monthly fees reported ($359.50)
• HOA & community: Association: GATEWAY PROPERTY MANAGEMENT / BURNT STORE MARINA SECTION 22; Monthly condo fee of $260; Annual association fee component of $1,194; Association fees may include grounds maintenance, management, and trash; Association approval required; Community amenities include fitness center, gated access, pool, tennis and pickleball courts, recreation facilities, sidewalks, dog park, and golf; Pets allowed (cats and dogs), max pet weight 120 lbs; Optional additional association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Garage with ground-level access and garage door opener
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler with recycled water
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing; Completed condition; Homesteaded
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of the existing development
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Front porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping with trees; Cul-de-sac lot; Private maintained paved road; Marina water access; No fixed bridges, no-wake zone, sailboat water, concrete seawall

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Water filtration system; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Storm windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in kitchen; Inside utility; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $538k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $520k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $456k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $456k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Burnt Store Marina — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#354 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1481 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,562/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 226% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($530k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $345k; list at $538k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $456,197 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-93,604
• Equity at exit: $80,218

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-89,611
• Equity at exit: $46,516

Cash invested: $150,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33955

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 1481
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,821
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,616/yr
• Insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$359
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$958
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,691

Max offer price $520,011

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $50	+0% $-102	+5% $-254	+10% $-406
Rent	-10% $-462	-5% $-282	+0% $-102	+5% $78	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $35	base $-102	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,500
• Closing costs: $16,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Islamorada Blvd Unit 12A Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1365	$1,600	$1.17	17d	1	0.15mi
1010 Islamorada Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$4,700	$2.95	24d	1	0.21mi
5050 Marianne Key Rd Unit 1B Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1347	$4,500	$3.34	17d	1	0.22mi
4005 Big Pass Ln Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1423	$5,500	$3.87	17d	1	0.23mi
2091 King Tarpon Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$5,200	$3.17	24d	1	0.31mi
3001 King Tarpon Dr Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$5,500	$3.17	24d	1	0.32mi
24417 Baltic Ave #1102 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1788	$5,250	$2.94	24d	1	0.49mi
1610 Islamorada Blvd Unit 64A Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$2,000	$1.32	24d	1	0.51mi
5 Pirates Ln Unit 54B Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$4,600	$3.03	24d	1	0.63mi
17947 Courtside Landings Cir Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1338	$5,500	$4.11	24d	1	0.64mi
3020 Matecumbe Key Rd #103 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$5,200	$4.53	24d	1	0.68mi
17434 Oro Ct Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.5	1864	$2,000	$1.07	22d	1	0.73mi
17849 Hibiscus Cove Ct #1 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1937	$6,250	$3.23	24d	1	0.74mi
2060 Matecumbe Key Rd Punta Gorda, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1271	$5,400	$4.25	24d	3	0.76mi
3471 Sunset Key Cir #102 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1991	$5,750	$2.89	24d	1	0.80mi
3170 Matecumbe Key Rd #134 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,899	$1.60	24d	1	0.86mi
3255 Sugarloaf Key Rd Unit 31B Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$3,000	$1.98	17d	1	0.86mi
3191 Matecumbe Key Rd #206 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$4,400	$3.99	24d	1	0.93mi
17314 Cape Horn Blvd Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	2216	$2,800	$1.26	14d	1	0.95mi
3313 Sunset Key Cir Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0–3.0	2089	$6,750	$3.23	24d	4	0.99mi
3313 Sunset Key Cir Unit Reservation spot 1 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	2099	$2,750	$1.31	24d	1	0.99mi
3181 Matecumbe Key Rd Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1254	$2,450	$1.95	24d	2	1.00mi
3250 Southshore Dr Unit 54B Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	2069	$5,750	$2.78	24d	1	1.03mi
3270 Southshore Dr Unit 72B Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	2069	$5,750	$2.78	24d	1	1.08mi
3280 Southshore Dr Unit 87A Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	2069	$4,000	$1.93	24d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $359 · $4,308/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $538,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $538,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $538,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $538,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $538,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $538,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $538,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $538,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $538,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $538,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $538,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-20
    listed $538,000 Active
13. 2025-08-03
    historical
14. 2025-08-03
    historical
15. 2025-03-28
    listed $558,000 Active
16. 2025-03-28
    listed $558,000 Active
17. 2018-05-11
    soldstatus $345,000
18. 2018-05-10
    soldstatus $345,000
19. 2017-09-28
    listed $354,900
20. 2004-10-04
    soldstatus $270,000
21. 2004-09-29
    soldstatus $270,000
22. 2004-05-24
    listed $279,000
23. 1997-02-20
    soldstatus $153,000
24. 1995-10-30
    soldstatus $138,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,616 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,465 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: +$850/yr (+$71/mo · 23.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,136
• − Property taxes: −$3,616
• − Insurance: −$2,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,379
• − Management: −$4,379
• − HOA: −$4,308
• − Depreciation: −$15,651
• Taxable loss: −$10,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,500
• After-tax cash flow: $1,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Burnt Store Marina

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #6145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burnt Store Marina, FL
• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,399
• Household income: $76,943
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 226.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.71%
• Current HPI: 242.9043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+289.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $538,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-03 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-08-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Listed $558,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $558,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $345,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-10 Sold (MLS) $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-28 Listed $354,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-29 Sold (MLS) $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-24 Listed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,616 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.