19409 N Papago Dr · Surprise, AZ 85374

$335,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1999 10,368 sqft lot $262/sqft · 15% below area Est $393k · 15% under $160/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Original owner Kiva model that has been lovingly maintained! This 2 bed, 2 bath home offers a comfortable and functional layout perfect for full-time or seasonal living. Enjoy relaxing on the spacious rear patio with plenty of shade--ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Mountain views from the front of the home add to the charm and appeal. The kitchen features updated countertops, and the garage includes built-in storage cabinets for added convenience. A well-cared-for home with great features in all the right places--come see it before it's gone! Property can be sold turnkey.

Key facts

• Updated countertops
• Spacious rear patio
• Mountain views

Tags

• SPACIOUS REAR PATIO
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• UPDATED COUNTERTOPS
• BUILT-IN STORAGE CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 399 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,827 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,561
• List price: $335,000
• Delta: -14.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16221 W Starry Sky Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,183 (-7%)	2mo	$335,000	$283	64
15996 W Mesquite Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,278 (0%)	1mo	$399,900	$313	64
16324 W Key Estrella Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,169 (-8%)	2mo	$320,000	$274	61
19760 N Los Altos Way	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,298 (+2%)	3mo	$374,900	$289	60
16100 W Eagle Ridge Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,183 (-7%)	3mo	$335,000	$283	60
19510 N Carriage Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	2mo	$350,000	$269	59
15931 W Autumn Cir	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	2mo	$324,900	$250	58
16785 W Nottingham Way	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,317 (+3%)	3mo	$365,000	$277	53
17580 N Estrella Vista Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,183 (-7%)	1mo	$274,000	$232	52
19241 N Emerald Cove Way	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,393 (+9%)	2mo	$280,000	$201	47
19535 N Carriage Ln	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,096 (-14%)	0mo	$310,000	$283	37
16926 W Nottingham Way	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (+12%)	1mo	$340,000	$238	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-79,849
• Equity at exit: $49,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-120,044
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,791

Max offer price $282,944

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-105	-5% $-200	+0% $-295	+5% $-389	+10% $-484
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-390	+0% $-295	+5% $-199	+10% $-104
Rate	-1.0pp $-126	-0.5pp $-209	base $-295	+0.5pp $-381	+1.0pp $-470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18277 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1870	$3,500	$1.87	44d	1	0.21mi
16426 W Boulder Vista Dr Unit 1546454P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$4,436	$2.73	15d	1	0.22mi
16270 W Cactus Valley Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,875	$1.40	44d	1	0.36mi
16215 W Desert Winds Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1183	$2,800	$2.37	44d	1	0.40mi
16344 W Crater Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1495	$3,200	$2.14	44d	1	0.53mi
17460 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,200	$1.97	44d	1	0.70mi
16926 W Nottingham Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,850	$1.29	2d	1	0.72mi
19352 N Vista Montana Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	13d	1	0.85mi
15866 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,200	$2.26	44d	1	0.90mi
15883 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,200	$1.56	44d	1	0.91mi
16536 W Rock Springs Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$1,995	$1.41	11d	1	0.91mi
18651 N Salerno Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1178	$1,650	$1.40	44d	1	0.92mi
17200 W Bell Rd #1185 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,400	$1.36	44d	1	0.92mi
15893 W Arrowhead Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,700	$1.55	5d	1	0.96mi
17057 W Manchester Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,695	$1.01	11d	1	0.98mi
17783 N El Dorado Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1647	$2,100	$1.28	44d	1	1.00mi
15913 W Clearwater Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1546	$3,000	$1.94	44d	1	1.02mi
16149 W Quail Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	44d	1	1.18mi
17200 W Bell Rd #373 Surprise, AZ	1.0	2.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	19d	1	1.25mi
16755 N Sarival Ave Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,042	$2.01	1d	1	1.25mi
20054 N Painted Sky Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1598	$3,200	$2.00	24d	1	1.27mi
16559 W Post Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,789	$1.12	22d	1	1.27mi
16171 W Wildflower Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,200	$2.50	19d	1	1.29mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	18d	1	1.29mi
16829 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	24d	1	1.33mi
16723 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,600	$1.97	24d	1	1.34mi
16719 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,795	$1.36	24d	1	1.35mi
16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	24d	1	1.37mi
16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1199	$1,750	$1.46	11d	1	1.37mi
17210 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1746	$2,900	$1.66	44d	1	1.38mi
15628 W Hidden Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,600	$2.21	44d	1	1.38mi
15724 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,800	$1.48	24d	1	1.42mi
15738 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,595	$1.31	24d	1	1.43mi
15448 W Moonlight Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1262	$4,200	$3.33	44d	1	1.43mi
15619 W Vista Grande Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1370	$3,500	$2.55	44d	1	1.43mi
15743 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1065	$2,500	$2.35	5d	1	1.44mi
17838 N Navarro Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,800	$2.45	44d	1	1.47mi
16115 W Acacia Ct Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.5	1099	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $335,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $345,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $360,000 Active 595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (595 chars)

    Original owner Kiva model that has been lovingly maintained! This 2 bed, 2 bath home offers a comfortable and functional layout perfect for full-time or seasonal living. Enjoy relaxing on the spacious rear patio with plenty of shade--ideal for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Mountain views from the front of the home add to the charm and appeal. The kitchen features updated countertops, and the garage includes built-in storage cabinets for added convenience. A well-cared-for home with great features in all the right places--come see it before it's gone! Property can be sold turnkey.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,785 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,211 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$35/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$9,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,283
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $360,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,785 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.