5422 Portland Rd NE #122 · Salem, OR 97305

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $57k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in desirable Arrowhead 55+ park. Conveniently located near Keizer Station shopping, dining & amenities. Enjoy a spacious open floor plan w/ built in hutch, new flooring, updated toilets. Fenced yard, workshop, storage area providing space for hobbies and storage. Comfortable living in great location.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Built in hutch
• Fenced yard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BUILT IN HUTCH
• FENCED YARD
• WORKSHOP
• STORAGE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No assessments/liens reported
• HOA & community: Located in Arrowhead 55+ park; Home warranty negotiable

Exterior

• Parking: One garage space; Carport
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home (Fleetwood Glenbrook); 24' wide; Entry and main living areas on main level; Light grey exterior color; Composition roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Built in 1980; Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Landscaped; Workshop (bonus room); Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range and refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level; Second bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms on the main level; Updated toilets
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating
• Interior features: Built-in hutch; Disposal; High-speed communication available
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 42.0% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clear Lake Elementary School (336 students, 57% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.65%
• DSCR: 6.68
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,408
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5422 Portland Rd #120	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	8mo	$57,500	$46	94
5422 Portland Rd NE #143	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	8mo	$49,900	$40	93
5422 Portland Rd NE #37	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	4mo	$39,000	$30	85
5422 Portland Rd NE #56	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	3mo	$38,500	$33	85
5422 Portland Rd NE Unit 22	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+4%)	7mo	$122,000	$94	83
4230 Hazelgreen Rd NE #52	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	3mo	$32,000	$27	83
5422 Portland Rd NE #80	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$81,000	$60	82
5422 Portland Rd NE #47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$35,000	$26	79
4293 Lemon St NE	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	3mo	$60,000	$52	77
5422 Portland Rd NE #33	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	2mo	$60,000	$56	76
5422 Portland Rd #35	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+12%)	7mo	$73,000	$52	68
4353 Lemon St NE	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (+11%)	4mo	$57,500	$41	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $69,263
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.14×
• Total profit: $157,935
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $820/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $1,188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $372

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,211	-5% $1,200	+0% $1,188	+5% $1,177	+10% $1,166
Rent	-10% $1,040	-5% $1,114	+0% $1,188	+5% $1,263	+10% $1,337
Rate	-1.0pp $1,208	-0.5pp $1,199	base $1,188	+0.5pp $1,178	+1.0pp $1,168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5115 Countryside St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,958	$2.23	15d	20	0.35mi
4115 Geranium Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1316	$2,250	$1.71	15d	1	0.64mi
4828 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	832	$1,435	$1.72	15d	5	0.73mi
4823 Settlers Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,395	$1.95	45d	1	0.78mi
5034 Armstrong Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,550	$1.82	45d	1	0.82mi
4040 Hayesville Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,695	$1.83	15d	25	0.92mi
4624 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	963	$1,495	$1.55	15d	10	1.05mi
4473 47th Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1244	$2,200	$1.77	45d	1	1.25mi
4007 Iberis St NE Unit 4007 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	45d	1	1.42mi
3942 Ward Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,550	$2.00	45d	3	1.44mi
4334 Ward Pl NE Unit 1 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,775	$1.42	45d	1	1.44mi
3875 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	707	$1,295	$1.83	24d	1	1.47mi
4375 Falcon View Way NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	842	$1,395	$1.66	45d	1	1.48mi
3813 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,295	$1.49	15d	1	1.49mi
3807 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,295	$1.49	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 342-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $39,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$820
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $14,502
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,480
• After-tax cash flow: $10,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• City population: 193,601
• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+73.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $39,900 WVMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $10,000 WVMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $17,500 WVMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $25,000 WVMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $30,000 WVMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $35,000 WVMLS
• 2021-06-04 Sold (MLS) $40,000 WVMLS
• 2021-05-24 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2021-05-20 Listed $35,000 WVMLS
• 2020-12-03 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2020-12-02 Listed $59,500 WVMLS
• 2020-09-22 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2020-09-15 Price Changed $49,999 WVMLS
• 2020-08-07 Listed $55,000 WVMLS
• 2020-08-03 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2020-07-06 Listed $55,000 WVMLS
• 2015-12-01 Sold (MLS) $16,500 WVMLS
• 2015-11-14 Pending — WVMLS
• 2015-11-12 Price Changed $18,900 WVMLS
• 2015-10-15 Listed $23,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $820 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.