4820 SE Kincaid Ave · Lawton, OK 73501

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,429 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1978 9,000 sqft lot Est $167k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Walk into a great open floorplan with large living w/fireplace, built-ins and large dining area for family get togethers. Kitchen updates include new cabinet doors, (the rest of the new doors to be installed this week), backsplash & counter tops. Refrigerator included. There is a eating area with access to covered back patio. Nice built in bench seat in hallway with hooks on wall for backpacks, etc. All bedrooms are good size. Master bath has updated good size walk in shower. NEW HEAT & AIR SYSTEM installed 3 years ago along with NEW HOT WATER TANK 2 years ago. HOME BEING SOLD AS IS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEW ROOF TO BE INSTALLED AT CLOSING.

Key facts

• Soaker tub
• 9,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FAUX MARBLE COUNTER TOPS
• WHITE SUBWAY TILE BACK SPLASH
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• SOFT CORE VINYL FLOORING
• DEACON'S BENCH BUILT IN
• SOAKER TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential single family (single family w/ acreage); Lot approximately 9,000 square feet (0.2066 acres); Zoning: R-1 Single Family

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 covered spaces; Total 2 parking spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Updated / remodeled; Faces city street (public maintained road)
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation; Built/updated (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Chain link and wood fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Range hood; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace heating option; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Double-pane windows; Storm windows; Window coverings; Fireplace(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($578/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Park Es (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #479 of 845 statewide, top 63%, 460 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Ms (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #113 of 345 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 0% FRL); Macarthur Hs (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #139 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,163 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,474 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.29%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,193
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4715 SE Kincaid	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-2%)	1mo	$160,000	$114	91
4910 SE Mills Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	2mo	$176,000	$117	85
1622 SE Hillcrest Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	4mo	$192,000	$128	79
4747 SE 47th St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-2%)	8mo	$161,500	$115	78
1423 SE Hillcrest Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	1mo	$195,000	$130	78
4703 SE Brown	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	11mo	$150,000	$100	74
4721 SE 47th	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-8%)	9mo	$165,000	$125	68
5005 SE 47th St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-9%)	6mo	$135,000	$104	67
5024 SE Redbud Pl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	7mo	$264,000	$176	65
4833 SE Brown St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+12%)	11mo	$185,000	$116	62
1405 SE Walnut Creek Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+12%)	10mo	$140,000	$88	54
4219 SE Bedford Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-9%)	7mo	$165,000	$127	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.71% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,657
• Equity at exit: $40,867

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,500
• Equity at exit: $44,857

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73501

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,491/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,304

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $93	+0% $48	+5% $3	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $-6	+0% $48	+5% $102	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $89	base $48	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,491 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,491 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,491
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$516
• After-tax cash flow: $1,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 20,397
• Household income: $49,741
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 742.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 20% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 14% Native American 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Current HPI: 172.4877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+62.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $160,000 LBRMLS
• 2022-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-21 Sold (MLS) $132,000 MLSOK
• 2022-02-03 Pending — MLSOK
• 2022-01-23 Listed $132,000 MLSOK
• 2017-04-06 Sold (MLS) $95,000 LBRMLS
• 2016-10-18 Listed $98,500 LBRMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,491 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.