15329 Little Valley Rd #27 · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 684 sqft · Land public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1970 4,530 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this beautifully upgraded 672 sq. ft. in Grass Valley Mobile Home Village. 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with modern features and an open layout in this ALL-AGES PARK. The home includes double-pane vinyl windows, water-resistant laminate flooring, and waterproof vinyl in the bathrooms. The kitchen is stylishly updated with solid wood, soft-close cabinets, granite countertops, a new large stainless-steel sink, gas stove, range hood, and ceiling fans. The kitchen takes center stage in this move-in-ready home, boasting efficient central gas heating complemented by a charming wood-burning stove for added warmth and ambiance. Freshly painted inside and out, the home also includes an AC windo

Key facts

• Gas stove
• Granite countertops
• 4,530 sq ft lot

Tags

• DOUBLE-PANE VINYL WINDOWS
• WATERPROOF VINYL IN BATHROOMS
• SOLID WOOD SOFT-CLOSE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE STAINLESS-STEEL SINK
• GAS STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Land lease community (monthly land lease approx. $905)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane service available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; Belair make; Built in 1970
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Backyard; Landscaped backyard; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing gas range; Gas cooktop; Free‑standing gas oven; Free‑standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Simulated wood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Tile surfaces; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Great room living area; Marble kitchen counters; Wood stove free‑standing fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (gas hook‑up, hookups only); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.0% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.29%
• DSCR: 5.24
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $68,969
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.41×
• Total profit: $160,329
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $155/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $1,223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $410

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,254	-5% $1,238	+0% $1,223	+5% $1,207	+10% $1,192
Rent	-10% $1,068	-5% $1,146	+0% $1,223	+5% $1,300	+10% $1,378
Rate	-1.0pp $1,251	-0.5pp $1,237	base $1,223	+0.5pp $1,209	+1.0pp $1,194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $55,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    status $55,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Contingent (Show) 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Contingent (Show) 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Contingent (Show) 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Contingent (Show) 75 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Contingent (Show) 74 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Contingent (Show) 73 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Contingent (Show) 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $155 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $418 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$263/yr (+$22/mo · 169.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$155
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $14,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,511
• After-tax cash flow: $11,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B