23130 Salley Dr · Warsaw, MO 65355

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily · 153 Days on market

Fair condition 0.30 ac lot $192/sqft · at area comps Est $125k · at est. $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute as a button! This cozy cabin is perfectly positioned on a generous corner lot, offering extra space & charm. Early morning coffee on the adorable covered front porch & host gatherings on the spacious entertaining deck, all set within the quaint and charming subdivision of Paradise Point Beach. Many updates include-new roof (9/25), mini split (23), new 36x24 Carport (24), new water heater (23) & retaining wall. The seller previously utilized the laundry room as an additional sleeping space (2nd bdrm), offering flexible use depending on your needs. Just a short distance away, you’ll find lake access, a beach area, & a boat ramp. This home offers a true weekend-getaway feel & is ready for endless summer days & unforgettable nights. With plenty of parking, there’s room to invite family, friends, & guests for easy, fun-filled events. Oversized detached 24x28 shop/garage w/ concrete floors offers plenty of room for tinkering, for your vehicles/boat & all your lake essentials. AN IDEAL GETAWAY FOR FISHING ENTHUSIASTS! Full of charm & warmth, this adorable cabin is waiting for its new owners to step in, settle down, & enjoy the simple pleasures of a weekend retreat or a fulltime home.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Entertaining deck
• Detached shop

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ENTERTAINING DECK
• LAKE ACCESS
• BOAT RAMP
• DETACHED SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-568/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Warsaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Boise Middle School (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 278 students, 99% FRL); Warsaw High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 403 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 61% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $107,493 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,000
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 3.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28677 White Oak St #1	0.02mi	2/1.0	724 (+8%)	15mo	$92,500	$128	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $30,081
• Equity at exit: $76,657

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $92,123
• Equity at exit: $135,336

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $122,156

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-3	+0% $-47	+5% $-92	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-90	+0% $-47	+5% $-5	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-14	base $-47	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 131 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 130 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    price $129,000 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    Cute as a button! This cozy cabin is perfectly positioned on a generous corner lot, offering extra space & charm. Early morning coffee on the adorable covered front porch & host gatherings on the spacious entertaining deck, all set within the quaint and charming subdivision of Paradise Point Beach. Many updates include-new roof (9/25), mini split (23), new 36x24 Carport (24), new water heater (23) & retaining wall. The seller previously utilized the laundry room as an additional sleeping space (2nd bdrm), offering flexible use depending on your needs. Just a short distance away, you’ll find lake access, a beach area, & a boat ramp. This home offers a true weekend-getaway feel & is ready for endless summer days & unforgettable nights. With plenty of parking, there’s room to invite family, friends, & guests for easy, fun-filled events. Oversized detached 24x28 shop/garage w/ concrete floors offers plenty of room for tinkering, for your vehicles/boat & all your lake essentials. AN IDEAL GETAWAY FOR FISHING ENTHUSIASTS! Full of charm & warmth, this adorable cabin is waiting for its new owners to step in, settle down, & enjoy the simple pleasures of a weekend retreat or a fulltime home.

20. 2026-05-11
    price $129,000 1268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1268 chars)

    Cute as a button! This cozy cabin is perfectly positioned on a generous corner lot, offering extra space & charm. Early morning coffee on the adorable covered front porch & host gatherings on the spacious entertaining deck, all set within the quaint and charming subdivision of Paradise Point Beach. Many updates include-new roof (9/25), mini split (23), new 36x24 Carport (24), new water heater (23) & retaining wall. The seller previously utilized the laundry room as an additional sleeping space (2nd bdrm), offering flexible use depending on your needs. Just a short distance away, you’ll find lake access, a beach area, & a boat ramp. This home offers a true weekend-getaway feel & is ready for endless summer days & unforgettable nights. With plenty of parking, there’s room to invite family, friends, & guests for easy, fun-filled events. Oversized detached 24x28 shop/garage w/ concrete floors offers plenty of room for tinkering, for your vehicles/boat & all your lake essentials. AN IDEAL GETAWAY FOR FISHING ENTHUSIASTS! Full of charm & warmth, this adorable cabin is waiting for its new owners to step in, settle down, & enjoy the simple pleasures of a weekend retreat or fulltime home.

21. 2026-01-20
    listed $149,900 Active 1268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    Cute as a button! This cozy cabin is perfectly positioned on a generous corner lot, offering extra space & charm. Early morning coffee on the adorable covered front porch & host gatherings on the spacious entertaining deck, all set within the quaint and charming subdivision of Paradise Point Beach. Many updates include-new roof (9/25), mini split (23), new 36x24 Carport (24), new water heater (23) & retaining wall. The seller previously utilized the laundry room as an additional sleeping space (2nd bdrm), offering flexible use depending on your needs. Just a short distance away, you’ll find lake access, a beach area, & a boat ramp. This home offers a true weekend-getaway feel & is ready for endless summer days & unforgettable nights. With plenty of parking, there’s room to invite family, friends, & guests for easy, fun-filled events. Oversized detached 24x28 shop/garage w/ concrete floors offers plenty of room for tinkering, for your vehicles/boat & all your lake essentials. AN IDEAL GETAWAY FOR FISHING ENTHUSIASTS! Full of charm & warmth, this adorable cabin is waiting for its new owners to step in, settle down, & enjoy the simple pleasures of a weekend retreat or a fulltime home.

22. 2026-01-20
    listed $149,900 Active 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    Cute as a button! This cozy cabin is perfectly positioned on a generous corner lot, offering extra space & charm. Early morning coffee on the adorable covered front porch & host gatherings on the spacious entertaining deck, all set within the quaint and charming subdivision of Paradise Point Beach. Many updates include-new roof (9/25), mini split (23), new 36x24 Carport (24), new water heater (23) & retaining wall. The seller previously utilized the laundry room as an additional sleeping space (2nd bdrm), offering flexible use depending on your needs. Just a short distance away, you’ll find lake access, a beach area, & a boat ramp. This home offers a true weekend-getaway feel & is ready for endless summer days & unforgettable nights. With plenty of parking, there’s room to invite family, friends, & guests for easy, fun-filled events. Oversized detached 24x28 shop/garage w/ concrete floors offers plenty of room for tinkering, for your vehicles/boat & all your lake essentials. AN IDEAL GETAWAY FOR FISHING ENTHUSIASTS! Full of charm & warmth, this adorable cabin is waiting for its new owners to step in, settle down, & enjoy the simple pleasures of a weekend retreat or a fulltime home.

23. 2022-09-26
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2022-06-02
    status Pending
25. 2022-05-06
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,032
• − Management: −$1,032
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$668
• After-tax cash flow: $100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, flooring, and landscaping. Upgrades in these areas will significantly enhance both its resale and rental appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are outdated and need replacement.
• Major bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are outdated and need updating.
• Major flooring — The carpet is worn and should be replaced or refinished.
• Minor paint — The paint quality is average and could be refreshed.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is minimal and should be improved for curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — A new kitchen will significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Bathroom renovation — Updating the bathroom will enhance both resale and rental appeal.
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Paint refresh — Fresh paint will make the home more appealing and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping upgrade — A well-maintained landscape will enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system will attract renters and improve rental value.
• Resale Window cleaning — Clean windows will make the home appear more attractive to potential buyers and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · The cabinets are outdated and need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · The fixtures are outdated and need updating.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The carpet is worn and should be replaced or refinished.	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · The paint quality is average and could be refreshed.	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · The landscaping is minimal and should be improved for curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$60,500–203,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — A new kitchen will significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Updating the bathroom will enhance both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Paint refresh — Fresh paint will make the home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping upgrade — A well-maintained landscape will enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system will attract renters and improve rental value. ↑
• Resale Window cleaning — Clean windows will make the home appear more attractive to potential buyers and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+29.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $129,000 WCAR
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $129,000 LOBR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $149,900 LOBR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $149,900 WCAR
• 2022-09-26 Sold (MLS) — WCAR
• 2022-06-02 Pending — WCAR
• 2022-05-06 Listed $99,900 WCAR