3703 Morning Dew Ct · Talty, TX 75126

$246,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,098 sqft lot $157/sqft · 9% below area Est $270k · 9% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($974/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.9% in Talty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,124 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,214 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,236
• List price: $246,490
• Delta: -8.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3143 Misty Morning Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,572 (0%)	1mo	$260,990	$166	99
6812 N FM 148	0.47mi	4/1.5	1,600 (+2%)	5mo	$700,000	$438	69
9476 Douglas Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+7%)	8mo	$248,500	$148	51
9013 George Trl	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,782 (+13%)	21mo	$280,000	$157	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,332
• Equity at exit: $36,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-40,862
• Equity at exit: $21,312

Cash invested: $69,017 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$308 /mo · $3,697/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,209

Max offer price $246,490

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,622
• Closing costs: $7,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   price $246,490
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $261,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,697
• − Insurance: −$1,232
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,220
• − Management: −$2,220
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,171
• Taxable loss: −$3,105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$745
• After-tax cash flow: $1,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. Simple updates like painting and cleaning can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean windows — Improves natural light and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean windows — Improves natural light and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Talty

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1124
• US rank: #19820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Talty, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $246,490 NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $261,490 NTREIS