21 Candace St · Providence, RI 02908

$469,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,272 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1895 2,563 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Smith Hill neighborhood of Providence, this well-situated two-family home offers EXCELLENT opportunity for investors. Close by to RI State House, Amtrak, and the MBTA commuter rail with direct access to Boston, and minutes to Providence Place Mall and downtown's business district. The first-floor unit features 2 bedrooms, a full bath, kitchen, and living room. The second and third floors combine to offer a spacious townhouse-style unit with 5 bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Property highlights include vinyl siding, updated windows, fully paid solar panels, and two newer high-efficiency gas heating systems with on-demand hot water. Property is subject to Providence Probate C

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Value-add potential
• Two-family home

Tags

• SMITH HILL NEIGHBORHOOD
• TWO-FAMILY HOME
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• FULLY PAID SOLAR PANELS
• ON-DEMAND HOT WATER
• VALUE-ADD POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×5.0bd/1.5ba + 1×2.0bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $918/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $470k).
• Recommended offer: $456k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.2% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F.
• Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,047/mo this rent would consume 99% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1561% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $132k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($456k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $470k implies a 495% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $455,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.74%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $56,006
• Equity at exit: $70,064

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $265,099
• Equity at exit: $40,628

Cash invested: $131,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02908

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,464
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,378/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,270
• Net cashflow: $1,836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,723

Max offer price $469,900

Occupancy floor 65%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	5.0	1.5	$3,580
1× unit	2.0	1	$2,466
Total (2 units)			$6,047

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,475
• Closing costs: $14,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-24
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-11
   listed $469,900 Active
4. 1991-07-31
   soldstatus $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast RI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,378 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,519 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,141/yr (+$178/mo · 63.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,322
• − Property taxes: −$3,378
• − Insurance: −$2,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,805
• − Management: −$5,805
• − Depreciation: −$13,670
• Taxable income: $15,235
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,656
• After-tax cash flow: $18,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Providence
• NCES district ID: 4400900
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,197
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9803
• State rank: #34 of 39 in RI

Livability — Providence

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #794

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, RI
• County: Providence County · 548,917 people
• City population: 212,734
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• Population (ZIP): 39,500
• Household income: $73,081
• Rent vs Own: 54.0% rent · 46.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1561.0

Population outlook (Providence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 653,469 people
• By 2030: 660,819 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 672,747 · +3.0%
• By 2050: 683,741 · +4.6%
• By 2075: 720,435 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 741,582 · +13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 16%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 4% Hispanic 3% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Providence

• 2024 margin: D (+14.4) · D 56.1% · R 41.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.4pp · 2024: 14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.4 2020: D+22.9 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.12%
• Current HPI: 407.0502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.46%
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

+494.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — RIS
• 2026-02-24 Contingent — RIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $469,900 RIS
• 1991-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,378 · -32.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.