101 Heritage Vlg Unit D · Southbury, CT 06488

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · Condo public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1968 $200/sqft · 15% below area Est $254k · 15% under $702/mo HOA · 30% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This upper Mark Twain condo is ready for you to come and turn it into your dream home. Heating its cozy layout is a heat pump and working fireplace. With its amenities including four pools, a fully equipped gym, huge array of special interest clubs, pickleball and tennis courts, this sought-after, 55+ Heritage Village community will give you the opportunity to relax and enjoy your life in a condo that has your own personal touch.

Key facts

• Working fireplace
• Pickleball courts
• Heat pump

Tags

• HEAT PUMP
• WORKING FIREPLACE
• FOUR POOLS
• FULLY EQUIPPED GYM
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-277 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (22.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 15 (suburban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #46 of 153 in CT (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Gainfield Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #99 of 553 statewide, top 19%, 351 students, 13% FRL); Rochambeau Middle School (math 56% / reading 69%, grade B+, #36 of 175 statewide, top 21%, 384 students, 12% FRL); Pomperaug Regional High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #37 of 194 statewide, top 19%, 1,039 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $165,988 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.53%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,099
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -15.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-52,069
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-66,305
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06488

• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,364 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,709/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$702
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,715

Max offer price $165,988

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-156	-5% $-217	+0% $-277	+5% $-338	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-464	-5% $-371	+0% $-277	+5% $-184	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-169	-0.5pp $-223	base $-277	+0.5pp $-333	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27 Heritage Vlg Unit B Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1432	$2,600	$1.82	13d	1	0.12mi
235 Heritage Vlg Unit B Southbury, CT	1.0	1.0	928	$2,100	$2.26	25d	1	0.26mi
576 Village St Unit D Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,400	$2.30	5d	1	0.41mi
576 Village St Unit D Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,400	$2.30	25d	1	0.41mi
593 Heritage Vlg Unit D Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,300	$2.20	25d	1	0.42mi
85 Hicock Dr Unit D Southbury, CT	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	13d	1	0.73mi
298 Old Waterbury Rd Unit 1 Southbury, CT	2.0	1.0	1014	$2,000	$1.97	5d	1	1.42mi
312 Old Waterbury Rd Apt 207 Southbury, CT	2.0	1.0	970	$2,750	$2.84	25d	1	1.44mi
312 Old Waterbury Rd Unit 312-Apt 102 Southbury, CT	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,805	$1.71	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $702 · $8,424/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $215,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $215,000 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    This upper Mark Twain condo is ready for you to come and turn it into your dream home. Heating its cozy layout is a heat pump and working fireplace. With its amenities including four pools, a fully equipped gym, huge array of special interest clubs, pickleball and tennis courts, this sought-after, 55+ Heritage Village community will give you the opportunity to relax and enjoy your life in a condo that has your own personal touch.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $229,000 Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    This upper Mark Twain condo is ready for you to come and turn it into your dream home. Heating its cozy layout is a heat pump and working fireplace. With its amenities including four pools, a fully equipped gym, huge array of special interest clubs, pickleball and tennis courts, this sought-after, 55+ Heritage Village community will give you the opportunity to relax and enjoy your life in a condo that has your own personal touch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,709 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,655 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$946/yr (+$79/mo · 34.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,709
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,269
• − Management: −$2,269
• − HOA: −$8,424
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,679
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,603
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 15
• NCES district ID: 0903537
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $84,697
• Composite: 54.36/100
• National rank: #1361
• State rank: #46 of 153 in CT

Livability — Southbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heritage Village, CT
• Population (ZIP): 19,973

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.35%
• Current HPI: 165.0514
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $215,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $229,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,709 · +59.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.