12906 Southspring Dr · Houston, TX 77047

$157,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,165 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1970 5,562 sqft lot Est $141k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated and move-in ready, this charming home presents an outstanding opportunity for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone seeking one of the best values in the neighborhood. With no HOA, it offers exceptional flexibility and affordability rarely found at this price point. Major improvements have already been completed, including updated windows, roof, AC units, hot water heater, electrical panel, and professionally inspected electrical system by a licensed electrician, providing added peace of mind. Inside, you’ll find elegant quartz countertops, a stylish backsplash, new faucets, updated lighting fixtures, new ceiling fans, and a new garbage disposal, creating a moder

Key facts

• Updated ac units
• Updated windows
• Updated roof

Tags

• NO HOA
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED AC UNITS
• UPDATED HOT WATER HEATER
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 1970; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard with backyard fencing; Private yard; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms — two standard bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 8 x 9 and 9 x 8) and a primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 9 x 9)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tub with shower; Ceiling fan(s); Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,965
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12922 Claygate Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,184 (+2%)	11mo	$124,900	$105	85
12930 Segrest Dr	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,219 (+5%)	6mo	$122,000	$100	80
12822 Southbridge Rd	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,215 (+4%)	24mo	$180,000	$148	70
12506 S Coast Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,026 (-12%)	3mo	$120,000	$117	60
12511 Claygate Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,298 (+11%)	10mo	$95,000	$73	54
3630 Almeda Genoa Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,063 (-9%)	21mo	$128,900	$121	45
12543 Claygate Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,305 (+12%)	24mo	$175,000	$134	45
12539 Claygate Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	998 (-14%)	23mo	$139,900	$140	42
12611 S Coast Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,335 (+15%)	20mo	$130,000	$97	40
3411 Grand Legacy Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+11%)	18mo	$264,990	$206	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,636
• Equity at exit: $23,409

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,978
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,057/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,447

Max offer price $157,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	0.35mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	0.68mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	2d	26	0.70mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.84mi
13561 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	44d	1	1.00mi
3110 Kainer Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,900	$1.29	8d	1	1.01mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	44d	35	1.02mi
13351 Cityscape Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,820	$1.87	1d	26	1.13mi
2620 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$1,650	$2.09	3d	13	1.15mi
4071 Schurmier Rd Unit SLC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,575	$1.59	3d	1	1.23mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Unit 13534 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,712	$1.48	3d	1	1.25mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,720	$1.49	5d	1	1.25mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	44d	1	1.26mi
13511 Hycohen Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	961	$1,710	$1.78	13d	26	1.27mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	44d	1	1.43mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	16d	1	1.43mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	19d	1	1.43mi
11906 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	44d	1	1.44mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 11857 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,362	$1.54	44d	1	1.46mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,314	$1.48	11d	1	1.46mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	5d	1	1.46mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	8d	1	1.46mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,282	$1.45	3d	1	1.46mi
11900 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,726	$1.97	2d	23	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $157,000 Pending 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $157,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $157,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $157,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,057 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,057 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$3,057
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable income: $999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$240
• After-tax cash flow: $3,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $157,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,057 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.