38 Harpers Lake Dr · Powder Springs, GA 30141

$104,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1961 0.38 ac lot $114/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid opportunity in Hiram. The home needs work but presents a clear value play for someone willing to put in the work. Straightforward improvements can make a meaningful impact here.

Key facts

• 0.38 acre lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 120 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $877 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.7% in Powder Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#79 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Paulding County (suburban): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 174 in GA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,458 units permitted in Paulding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Paulding County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $79k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,549 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.79%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,290
• List price: $104,999
• Delta: -56.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74 Foxboro Ct	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+15%)	14mo	$230,000	$218	49
56 Pierce Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+14%)	15mo	$200,000	$190	39
134 Echo Ridge Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+15%)	21mo	$262,000	$248	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $38,639
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $104,770
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30141

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,133/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $877

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $104,999

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6737 Bill Carruth Pkwy Hiram, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,969	$1.69	1d	7	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,999 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,999 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,999 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,999 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,999 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,999 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,999 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,999 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,999 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $104,999 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,999 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,999 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,999 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,999 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    price $104,999 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Solid opportunity in Hiram. The home needs work but presents a clear value play for someone willing to put in the work. Straightforward improvements can make a meaningful impact here.

16. 2026-02-18
    listed $109,999 New 188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (188 chars)

    Solid opportunity in Hiram. The home needs work but presents a clear value play for someone willing to put in the work. Straightforward improvements can make a meaningful impact here.

17. 2003-05-27
    soldstatus $79,000
18. 1994-11-04
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,133 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,133 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,133
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $9,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,252
• After-tax cash flow: $8,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paulding County
• NCES district ID: 1304020
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $61,447
• Composite: 36.0/100
• National rank: #4784
• State rank: #33 of 174 in GA

Livability — Powder Springs

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #6846

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Paulding County · 134,013 people
• City population: 71,626
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 27,220
• Household income: $86,824
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Paulding County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,714 people
• By 2030: 186,082 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 204,414 · +16.3%
• By 2050: 217,040 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 236,980 · +34.9%
• By 2100: 238,314 · +35.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 33% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Paulding

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -38.5pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+38.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.28%
• Current HPI: 197.6767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+144.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $104,999 GAMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $109,999 GAMLS
• 2003-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 1994-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,133 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.