245 Jones Ridge Ln · Broad Creek, NC 28570

$389,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · Other · 38 Days on market

Built 2024 Fair condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Almost Newport 3bed 2 bath with 9 foot ceilings. Smart house great neighbors lVP flooring great yard and double garage. Gas appliances and landscaped nice yard. Off hyw. 24

Key facts

• Smart house
• 9 foot ceilings
• Landscaped yard

Tags

• 9 FOOT CEILINGS
• SMART HOUSE
• LVP FLOORING
• LANDSCAPED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $389k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($86k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $389k).
• Recommended offer: $377k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 22.6% in Broad Creek — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#340 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,442/mo this rent would consume 213% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $377,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.67%
• DSCR: 4.50
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $391,939
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.52×
• Total profit: $927,666
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,835/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,613
• Net cashflow: $7,141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,403

Max offer price $389,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $389,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $389,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $149,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$5,835
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,944
• − Management: −$11,944
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable income: $84,525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,286
• After-tax cash flow: $65,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The property has a good exterior and roof, but needs landscaping and interior updates to maximize its value for resale or rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained and lush landscape can significantly increase both the resale and rental value of a property.
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior with modern finishes and appliances can enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Both Smart home integration — The listing mentions a smart house, which can add value by improving energy efficiency and convenience for potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained and lush landscape can significantly increase both the resale and rental value of a property. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior with modern finishes and appliances can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — The listing mentions a smart house, which can add value by improving energy efficiency and convenience for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Broad Creek

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #340
• US rank: #13718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Broad Creek, NC
• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• City population: 22,197
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $389,000 FSBO.com