4951 Magnolia Ave · St. Louis, MO 63139

$434,900

16 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,060 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1923 8,197 sqft lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $434k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

All-brick four family, fully-occupied one bed, one bath units offer buyer a turnkey investment. Front of building is highlighted by keystones and sidelights at entrance door and windows that lighten entry and staircase. Units have been updated and maintained including windows, plumbing, electrical, hvac. Washer/dryer units in lower level. Parking pads in private alley at rear of building. Photos show carpeted unit, some units have hardwood flooring, see seller disclosure. Located on one of Southwest Garden’s unique tree-lined streets with a median that has flowerbeds and additional trees (similar to medians on Flora and Reber Place), adding to this block’s charm and character. Neighborhood is a short walk to Tower Grove Park, Missouri Botanical Garden . . . minutes from major highways, Forest Park, South Grand district, St. Louis University hospital and university, Barnes hospital, WashU campus and medical school . . . popular, ultra-convenient location. Opportunity to own side by side buildings to include eight, 1 bed, 1 bath units (4945 & 4951 Magnolia).

Key facts

• Parking pads
• Washer dryer units
• 8,197 sq ft lot

Tags

• KEYSTONES AND SIDELIGHTS
• UPDATED AND MAINTAINED
• WASHER DRYER UNITS
• PARKING PADS
• SHORT WALK TO TOWER GROVE PARK
• MINUTES FROM MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $763 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $191/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $435k).
• Recommended offer: $383k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,370/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 653% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $122k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $435k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $382,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.51%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $433,603
• List price: $434,900
• Delta: 0.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-11,273
• Equity at exit: $64,845

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $98,569
• Equity at exit: $37,602

Cash invested: $121,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63139

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 33.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,734/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$918
• Net cashflow: $763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,405

Max offer price $434,900

Occupancy floor 78%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	1	1	$4,368
Total (4 units)			$4,370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,725
• Closing costs: $13,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $434,900 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $434,900 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $434,900 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $434,900 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $434,900 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $434,900 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $434,900 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $434,900 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $434,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $434,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $434,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $434,900 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $434,900 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    status Active 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    All-brick four family, fully-occupied one bed, one bath units offer buyer a turnkey investment. Front of building is highlighted by keystones and sidelights at entrance door and windows that lighten entry and staircase. Units have been updated and maintained including windows, plumbing, electrical, hvac. Washer/dryer units in lower level. Parking pads in private alley at rear of building. Photos show carpeted unit, some units have hardwood flooring, see seller disclosure. Located on one of Southwest Garden’s unique tree-lined streets with a median that has flowerbeds and additional trees (similar to medians on Flora and Reber Place), adding to this block’s charm and character. Neighborhood is a short walk to Tower Grove Park, Missouri Botanical Garden . . . minutes from major highways, Forest Park, South Grand district, St. Louis University hospital and university, Barnes hospital, WashU campus and medical school . . . popular, ultra-convenient location. Opportunity to own side by side buildings to include eight, 1 bed, 1 bath units (4945 & 4951 Magnolia).

15. 2026-04-15
    price $434,900 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    All-brick four family, fully-occupied one bed, one bath units offer buyer a turnkey investment. Front of building is highlighted by keystones and sidelights at entrance door and windows that lighten entry and staircase. Units have been updated and maintained including windows, plumbing, electrical, hvac. Washer/dryer units in lower level. Parking pads in private alley at rear of building. Photos show carpeted unit, some units have hardwood flooring, see seller disclosure. Located on one of Southwest Garden’s unique tree-lined streets with a median that has flowerbeds and additional trees (similar to medians on Flora and Reber Place), adding to this block’s charm and character. Neighborhood is a short walk to Tower Grove Park, Missouri Botanical Garden . . . minutes from major highways, Forest Park, South Grand district, St. Louis University hospital and university, Barnes hospital, WashU campus and medical school . . . popular, ultra-convenient location. Opportunity to own side by side buildings to include eight, 1 bed, 1 bath units (4945 & 4951 Magnolia).

16. 2026-04-07
    historical Active Under Contract 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    All-brick four family, fully-occupied one bed, one bath units offer buyer a turnkey investment. Front of building is highlighted by keystones and sidelights at entrance door and windows that lighten entry and staircase. Units have been updated and maintained including windows, plumbing, electrical, hvac. Washer/dryer units in lower level. Parking pads in private alley at rear of building. Photos show carpeted unit, some units have hardwood flooring, see seller disclosure. Located on one of Southwest Garden’s unique tree-lined streets with a median that has flowerbeds and additional trees (similar to medians on Flora and Reber Place), adding to this block’s charm and character. Neighborhood is a short walk to Tower Grove Park, Missouri Botanical Garden . . . minutes from major highways, Forest Park, South Grand district, St. Louis University hospital and university, Barnes hospital, WashU campus and medical school . . . popular, ultra-convenient location. Opportunity to own side by side buildings to include eight, 1 bed, 1 bath units (4945 & 4951 Magnolia).

17. 2026-02-09
    price $449,000 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    All-brick four family, fully-occupied one bed, one bath units offer buyer a turnkey investment. Front of building is highlighted by keystones and sidelights at entrance door and windows that lighten entry and staircase. Units have been updated and maintained including windows, plumbing, electrical, hvac. Washer/dryer units in lower level. Parking pads in private alley at rear of building. Photos show carpeted unit, some units have hardwood flooring, see seller disclosure. Located on one of Southwest Garden’s unique tree-lined streets with a median that has flowerbeds and additional trees (similar to medians on Flora and Reber Place), adding to this block’s charm and character. Neighborhood is a short walk to Tower Grove Park, Missouri Botanical Garden . . . minutes from major highways, Forest Park, South Grand district, St. Louis University hospital and university, Barnes hospital, WashU campus and medical school . . . popular, ultra-convenient location. Opportunity to own side by side buildings to include eight, 1 bed, 1 bath units (4945 & 4951 Magnolia).

18. 2026-01-16
    listed $475,000 Active 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    All-brick four family, fully-occupied one bed, one bath units offer buyer a turnkey investment. Front of building is highlighted by keystones and sidelights at entrance door and windows that lighten entry and staircase. Units have been updated and maintained including windows, plumbing, electrical, hvac. Washer/dryer units in lower level. Parking pads in private alley at rear of building. Photos show carpeted unit, some units have hardwood flooring, see seller disclosure. Located on one of Southwest Garden’s unique tree-lined streets with a median that has flowerbeds and additional trees (similar to medians on Flora and Reber Place), adding to this block’s charm and character. Neighborhood is a short walk to Tower Grove Park, Missouri Botanical Garden . . . minutes from major highways, Forest Park, South Grand district, St. Louis University hospital and university, Barnes hospital, WashU campus and medical school . . . popular, ultra-convenient location. Opportunity to own side by side buildings to include eight, 1 bed, 1 bath units (4945 & 4951 Magnolia).

19. 2024-04-10
    historical $900
20. 2024-03-20
    price $900
21. 2024-03-13
    listed $925
22. 2018-05-31
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,734 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,219 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,484/yr (+$124/mo · 54.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,361
• − Property taxes: −$2,734
• − Insurance: −$2,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,195
• − Management: −$4,195
• − Depreciation: −$12,652
• Taxable income: $2,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$511
• After-tax cash flow: $8,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $75,757
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.54%
• Current HPI: 256.7513
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.39%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+117.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $434,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $449,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $475,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $900 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-20 Price Changed $900 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Listed for Rent $925 APPFOLIO
• 2018-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,734 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.