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1322 Truckee River Dr 🌊 Lakefront
D- Composite 39.44
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.6/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.9/10.0
  • 1% rule +3.4/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.6/5.0
  • DSCR +0.8/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$355,000

1322 Truckee River Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 6,847 sqft lot Garage $154/sqft · 17% below area Est $429k · 17% under · waterfront $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

LAKE FRONT LOT!! The Mitchell plan is a two-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and 2 car garage. The foyer opens to a downstairs guest bedroom and bath with linen shelves. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar with beautiful counter tops, stainless steel appliances and corner pantry which connects to the split dining area and family room. The private primary suite with attractive primary bath features dual vanities, water closet and walk-in closet. A versatile game room greets you at the top of the stairs and opens to two additional bedrooms and bath. The standard rear covered patio is located off the family room.

Key facts

  • Incredible amenities
  • Spacious kitchen
  • Lake view

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTSPACIOUS KITCHENGREAT BACKYARDLAKE VIEWINCREDIBLE AMENITIESPOOLS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $355k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-658 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (32.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (16.4% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $239k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 12647% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $238,763 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
  11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
  12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
  13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  15. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.84%
Cap rate
4.29%
Cash-on-cash
-7.14%
DSCR
0.68
GRM
10.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$428,603
List price
$355,000
Delta
-17.17%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
10914 Amador Peak Dr 0.56mi 4/2.5 2,203 (-4%) 0mo $374,485 $170 67
10513 Mount Tallac Ct 0.22mi 4/2.5 2,003 (-13%) 4mo $339,900 $170 65
10831 Bodie Hills Dr 0.20mi 4/3.5 2,598 (+13%) 2mo $378,000 $145 64
1225 Scarlet Mountain Dr 0.44mi 4/2.5 2,468 (+7%) 5mo $290,000 $118 63
10910 Amador Peak Dr 0.55mi 4/2.5 2,372 (+3%) 7mo $354,990 $150 63
1834 Temple Grove Dr 0.58mi 4/2.5 2,203 (-4%) 6mo $364,990 $166 61
1843 Temple Grove Dr 0.60mi 4/2.5 2,372 (+3%) 7mo $349,195 $147 61
1314 Eagle Pass Dr 0.26mi 4/3.5 2,604 (+13%) 2mo $339,900 $131 60
1922 Temple Grove Dr 0.69mi 4/2.5 2,203 (-4%) 6mo $360,990 $164 56
10819 Amador Peak Dr 0.51mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,099 (-9%) 3mo $360,000 $172 54
1906 Temple Grove Dr 0.64mi 4/3.5 2,468 (+7%) 4mo $386,550 $157 50
10507 Sutter Creek Dr 0.58mi 4/3.0 2,566 (+12%) 3mo $489,900 $191 49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-33.8%
Equity multiple
-0.07×
Total profit
$-106,508
Equity at exit
$52,932
10-year hold
IRR
-66.9%
Equity multiple
-0.75×
Total profit
$-174,227
Equity at exit
$30,694

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
67 active · 19 under contract
Months of supply
16.8 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$362,710 ($165/sqft)
Median days on market
57 d
This list price
43% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+13.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY
0.4%
Active inventory
1445
Price-to-rent
10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,969 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,862
Tax from tax record
$853 /mo · $10,234/yr
Insurance
$148
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$75
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$624
Net cashflow
$-658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,802
Max offer price $238,763
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-457 -5% $-558 +0% $-658 +5% $-758 +10% $-859
Rent -10% $-893 -5% $-775 +0% $-658 +5% $-541 +10% $-423
Rate -1.0pp $-479 -0.5pp $-568 base $-658 +0.5pp $-750 +1.0pp $-844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$88,750
Closing costs
$10,650
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 17 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 3.0 2067 $3,450 $1.67 56d 1 0.07mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.5 1940 $2,875 $1.48 52d 1 0.12mi
1207 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 2070 $2,300 $1.11 35d 1 0.14mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1780 $2,775 $1.56 92d 1 0.14mi
10607 Crescent Peak Ct Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1615 $2,775 $1.72 0d 1 0.17mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX 4.0 3.5 2070 $2,700 $1.30 92d 1 0.19mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1596 $2,850 $1.79 69d 1 0.22mi
10534 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 1804 $2,770 $1.54 0d 1 0.24mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1615 $2,725 $1.69 36d 1 0.24mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1802 $2,545 $1.41 92d 1 0.68mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1770 $2,579 $1.46 0d 17 0.77mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1731 $2,875 $1.66 92d 7 1.12mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1731 $2,875 $1.66 0d 8 1.12mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 4.0 2531 $2,850 $1.13 92d 1 1.19mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 3.0 1999 $2,600 $1.30 92d 1 1.19mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1844 $2,000 $1.08 62d 1 1.22mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX 5.0 2.5 2605 $2,276 $0.87 48d 1 1.23mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Seller disclosure available
Financial info
Lease considered
HOA & community
Sierra Vista at Canyon Gate AssociationCommunity poolAnnual association fee of $900On-site amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground, park, trails, tennis courts, basketball court, and dog park

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with garage door opener
Security
Leased security systemSmoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyHas a viewSlab foundation
Construction
Brick constructionComposition roofBuilt in 2022
Exterior features
Private yardFence (back yard)Sprinkler / irrigationCleared lotSubdivision settingViews

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorRented water softener
Bedrooms
4 total rooms
Flooring
CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
Interior features
Entrance foyerHigh ceilingsCeiling fans
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $75/mo · $900/yr

Likely covers
water

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $355,000 Active 80 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $355,000 Active 78 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $355,000 Active 77 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $355,000 Active 76 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $355,000 Active 75 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $355,000 Active 72 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $355,000 Active 70 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $355,000 Active 69 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $355,000 Active 67 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $355,000 Active 65 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $355,000 Active 64 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $355,000 Active 63 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $355,000 Active 62 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $355,000 Active 61 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $355,000 Active 59 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $355,000 Active 58 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $355,000 Active 57 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $355,000 Active 56 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $369,000 Active 55 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $369,000 Active 54 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $369,000 Active 53 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $369,000 Active 52 DOM
  23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $369,000 Active 51 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $369,000 Active 50 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $369,000 Active 48 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $369,000 Active 47 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $369,000 Active 46 DOM
  28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $369,000 Active 45 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $369,000 Active 44 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $369,000 Active 43 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $369,000 Active 42 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $369,000 Active 41 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $369,000 Active 40 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $369,000 Active 39 DOM
  35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $369,000 Active 38 DOM
  36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $369,000 Active 37 DOM
  37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $369,000 Active 35 DOM
  38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $369,000 Active 33 DOM
  39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $369,000 Active 32 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $369,000 Active 29 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $369,000 Active 28 DOM
  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $369,000 Active 27 DOM
  43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $369,000 Active 26 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $369,000 Active 24 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $369,000 Active 23 DOM
  46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $369,000 Active 20 DOM
  47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $369,000 Active 19 DOM
  48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,000 Active 18 DOM
  49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,000 Active 15 DOM
  50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,000 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$10,234 · $853/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$10,234 · $853/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$35,634
− Mortgage interest
−$19,886
− Property taxes
−$10,234
− Insurance
−$2,572
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,851
− Management
−$2,851
− HOA
−$900
− Depreciation
−$10,327
Taxable loss
−$13,987
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$3,357
After-tax cash flow
$-4,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,495–$34,485 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Sierra Vista offers a good condition with modern finishes and a spacious floor plan. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
  • Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics, attracting more buyers/renters.
  • Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers/renters.
  • Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics, attracting more buyers/renters.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

District
Alvin ISD
NCES district ID
4808090
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income
$66,740
Composite
38.96/100
National rank
#4080
State rank
#255 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

Score
64/100
State rank
#757
US rank
#13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population
52,747
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
52,747
Household income
$119,287
Rent vs Own
9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
420,414 people
By 2030
457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040
532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050
605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075
779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100
883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin
R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing
+9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-99.3% since first listed
19 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-21 Price Changed $2,700 HARMLS
  • 2026-07-14 Price Changed $355,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-28 Listed for Rent $2,785 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-21 Listed $369,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-11-19 Rental Removed $2,799 HARMLS
  • 2025-11-14 Listed for Rent $2,799 HARMLS
  • 2025-11-14 Rental Removed $2,799 HARMLS
  • 2025-11-11 Price Changed $2,799 HARMLS
  • 2025-10-26 Price Changed $2,900 HARMLS
  • 2025-10-14 Price Changed $3,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-09-23 Listed for Rent $2,800 HARMLS
  • 2023-05-26 Sold (MLS) HARMLS
  • 2023-04-27 Pending HARMLS
  • 2023-03-03 Price Changed $364,990 HARMLS
  • 2023-02-25 Price Changed $367,990 HARMLS
  • 2022-12-25 Price Changed $364,990 HARMLS
  • 2022-11-04 Listed $390,990 HARMLS
  • 2022-11-02 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2022-11-01 Listed $390,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+67.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,234 · -9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…