9296 SW Michelle Dr · Palm City, FL 34997

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 1980 Good condition $106/sqft · 25% below area Est $159k · 25% under $880/mo HOA · 38% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom home in the quiet Royal Palms 55+ community. Thoughtfully renovated, it offers updated flooring, new sliding glass doors, and a new 2026 water heater for peace of mind. Located on an end lot, enjoy added privacy and a peaceful setting. Step outside to your own oasis with an outdoor shower, perfect after the beach. The covered patio features epoxy flooring, and the air-conditioned shed also includes epoxy flooring for a clean, versatile space. A separate, spacious laundry room adds convenience. **Stunning furniture is included**, making this home move-in ready. Welcome home.

Key facts

• New water heater
• Covered patio
• Updated flooring

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEW SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• NEW WATER HEATER
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• COVERED PATIO
• AIR-CONDITIONED SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.6% in Palm City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#140 in FL, #2,113 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.69%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,641
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -24.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9274 SW Mary Dr E	0.04mi	3/3.0	1,200 (+7%)	6mo	$95,000	$79	77
9273 SW Mary Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-12%)	5mo	$89,000	$91	67
2554 SW Olds Pl	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,126 (+0%)	11mo	$160,000	$142	54
2596 SW Olds Pl	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,090 (-3%)	13mo	$204,000	$187	48
2542 SW Marquis Ter	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,221 (+9%)	17mo	$233,000	$191	36
2401 SW Olds Pl	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (+14%)	15mo	$215,000	$169	35
2566 SW Pontiac Pl	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,252 (+12%)	14mo	$151,500	$121	34
2661 SW Toronado Trl	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,237 (+10%)	11mo	$192,500	$156	33
8921 SW Chevy Cir	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-11%)	19mo	$249,900	$250	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-11,094
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $598
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34997

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$880
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,155

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $171	+0% $130	+5% $89	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $39	+0% $130	+5% $222	+10% $313
Rate	-1.0pp $190	-0.5pp $160	base $130	+0.5pp $99	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $880 · $10,560/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    listed $119,000 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom home in the quiet Royal Palms 55+ community. Thoughtfully renovated, it offers updated flooring, new sliding glass doors, and a new 2026 water heater for peace of mind. Located on an end lot, enjoy added privacy and a peaceful setting. Step outside to your own oasis with an outdoor shower, perfect after the beach. The covered patio features epoxy flooring, and the air-conditioned shed also includes epoxy flooring for a clean, versatile space. A separate, spacious laundry room adds convenience. **Stunning furniture is included**, making this home move-in ready. Welcome home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − HOA: −$10,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $314
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$75
• After-tax cash flow: $1,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated 3-bedroom home in the Royal Palms 55+ community is move-in ready with fresh paint, updated appliances, and modern amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — Modern AC improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase appeal and value
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — Modern AC improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase appeal and value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm City

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #2113

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 30,592
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,075
• Household income: $78,136
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1323.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.78%
• Current HPI: 336.7717
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $119,000 Beaches MLS