1495 Mabry Rd · Angier, NC 27501

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1997 0.60 ac lot Est $252k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch home in the country -- move-in-ready -- gorgeous pond view -- rocking chair front porch - all new paint, new carpet, and beautiful new laminate in kitchen, great room, and hall. Large kitchen with bay-windowed dining area. Three bedrooms, two full baths. Cathedral ceilings, gas-log fireplace, large wired aluminum out-building. Design is open and spacious -- sparkles like new.

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($35/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Angier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#69 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harnett Central Middle (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #323 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 1,024 students, 63% FRL); Harnett Central High (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 1,474 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 657 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $255k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,124 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,712
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1495 Mabry Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,117 (+1%)	1mo	$255,000	$228	98
1663 Mabry Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,135 (+3%)	6mo	$250,000	$220	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-44,213
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-50,515
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27501

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 657
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75 Viola Ln Angier, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	23d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $255,000 Active
3. 2011-06-01
   soldstatus $110,000 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Ranch home in the country -- move-in-ready -- gorgeous pond view -- rocking chair front porch - all new paint, new carpet, and beautiful new laminate in kitchen, great room, and hall. Large kitchen with bay-windowed dining area. Three bedrooms, two full baths. Cathedral ceilings, gas-log fireplace, large wired aluminum out-building. Design is open and spacious -- sparkles like new.

4. 2011-06-01
   soldstatus $110,000 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Ranch home in the country -- move-in-ready -- gorgeous pond view -- rocking chair front porch - all new paint, new carpet, and beautiful new laminate in kitchen, great room, and hall. Large kitchen with bay-windowed dining area. Three bedrooms, two full baths. Cathedral ceilings, gas-log fireplace, large wired aluminum out-building. Design is open and spacious -- sparkles like new.

5. 2011-06-01
   soldstatus $110,000

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Ranch home in the country -- move-in-ready -- gorgeous pond view -- rocking chair front porch - all new paint, new carpet, and beautiful new laminate in kitchen, great room, and hall. Large kitchen with bay-windowed dining area. Three bedrooms, two full baths. Cathedral ceilings, gas-log fireplace, large wired aluminum out-building. Design is open and spacious -- sparkles like new.

6. 2010-11-18
   listed $117,500 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Ranch home in the country -- move-in-ready -- gorgeous pond view -- rocking chair front porch - all new paint, new carpet, and beautiful new laminate in kitchen, great room, and hall. Large kitchen with bay-windowed dining area. Three bedrooms, two full baths. Cathedral ceilings, gas-log fireplace, large wired aluminum out-building. Design is open and spacious -- sparkles like new.

7. 2010-11-18
   listed $117,500 384-char remark

   Show marketing remark (384 chars)

   Ranch home in the country -- move-in-ready -- gorgeous pond view -- rocking chair front porch - all new paint, new carpet, and beautiful new laminate in kitchen, great room, and hall. Large kitchen with bay-windowed dining area. Three bedrooms, two full baths. Cathedral ceilings, gas-log fireplace, large wired aluminum out-building. Design is open and spacious -- sparkles like new.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$855/yr (+$71/mo · 69.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $1,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Angier

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #5182

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 24,806
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 24,806
• Household income: $73,336
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.84%
• Current HPI: 248.5302
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.47%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+117.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $255,000 TMLS
• 2011-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-01 Sold (MLS) $110,000 AMLSNC
• 2011-06-01 Sold (MLS) $110,000 TMLS
• 2010-11-18 Listed $117,500 AMLSNC
• 2010-11-18 Listed $117,500 TMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,236 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.