339 Blue Sage Rd · Panama City Beach, FL 32413

$625,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,253 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2016 6,840 sqft lot $277/sqft · 30% below area Est $889k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RELOCATED SELLER IS HIGHLY MOTIVATED AND READY TO MAKE A GREAT DEAL. Generous incentives include $5,000 for new appliances plus $10,000 towards Buyer's closing costs. The home has just been freshly painted and features new flooring throughout. Welcome to Whisper Dunes, Panama City Beaches beautiful neighborhood on the west end. 339 Blue Sage Road is a 5 bedroom, 3 bath home that looks and feels like a brand new home. Everyone is looking for that open floor plan and this one doesn't disappoint. The feel of the home is a craftsman style with shaker style cabinets and granite counter tops along with stylish crown molding throughout. the kitchen features a huge island and a generous stainless steel appliance package. The living room is open to the kitchen for the spacious feel that you expect from a home built for entertaining. A luxurious master suite features dual vanities, walk in shower, separate soaking tub and large walk in closet. All of the remaining bedrooms are very large and perfect for those needing the extra space. The exterior of the home is built to last with hardie board style siding and stone accents. If you have been looking for great beach living in a private community, close to the water and 30A, this is the ONE. Call today

Key facts

• Huge island
• Granite counter tops
• Craftsman style

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN STYLE
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• CROWN MOLDING
• HUGE ISLAND
• LIVING ROOM OPEN TO KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-445 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $546k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $454k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $454k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Bay Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 313 students, 50% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,538/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($588k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $345k; list at $625k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $453,822 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $889,357
• List price: $625,000
• Delta: -29.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19905 Charlie Claude Dr	0.35mi	5/4.5 (+1)	2,232 (-1%)	1mo	$780,000	$349	70
19901 Charlie Claude Dr	0.35mi	5/4.5 (+1)	2,232 (-1%)	7mo	$799,000	$358	65
209 16th St	0.46mi	4/4.0	2,324 (+3%)	9mo	$785,000	$338	62
310 Chelsea Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,274 (+1%)	5mo	$1,159,000	$510	58
20111 Alta Vista Dr	0.32mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,119 (-6%)	15mo	$760,000	$359	56
215 16th St	0.43mi	4/4.5	2,324 (+3%)	18mo	$850,000	$366	54
221 Lake Pl	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,189 (-3%)	23mo	$975,000	$445	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-140,775
• Equity at exit: $93,190

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-202,666
• Equity at exit: $54,039

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$492 /mo · $5,906/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$953
• Net cashflow: $-445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,101

Max offer price $546,401

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-268	+0% $-445	+5% $-622	+10% $-799
Rent	-10% $-803	-5% $-624	+0% $-445	+5% $-266	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-130	-0.5pp $-286	base $-445	+0.5pp $-607	+1.0pp $-772

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
238 Oleander Dr Unit 1462121P Panama City, FL	4.0	4.0	1732	$4,298	$2.48	15d	1	0.35mi
223 E Lakeshore Dr Unit 1511640P Panama City Beach, FL	4.0	3.5	2594	$7,599	$2.93	23d	1	0.92mi
21310 Pompano Ave Unit 1511639P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1883	$6,011	$3.19	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $625,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $625,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $625,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $625,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $625,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $625,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $625,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $625,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $625,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $625,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $625,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $625,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $625,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $625,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $625,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $625,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $625,000 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $625,000 Active 58 DOM
19. 2026-05-07
    price $625,000 1261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1261 chars)

    RELOCATED SELLER IS HIGHLY MOTIVATED AND READY TO MAKE A GREAT DEAL. Generous incentives include $5,000 for new appliances plus $10,000 towards Buyer's closing costs. The home has just been freshly painted and features new flooring throughout. Welcome to Whisper Dunes, Panama City Beaches beautiful neighborhood on the west end. 339 Blue Sage Road is a 5 bedroom, 3 bath home that looks and feels like a brand new home. Everyone is looking for that open floor plan and this one doesn't disappoint. The feel of the home is a craftsman style with shaker style cabinets and granite counter tops along with stylish crown molding throughout. the kitchen features a huge island and a generous stainless steel appliance package. The living room is open to the kitchen for the spacious feel that you expect from a home built for entertaining. A luxurious master suite features dual vanities, walk in shower, separate soaking tub and large walk in closet. All of the remaining bedrooms are very large and perfect for those needing the extra space. The exterior of the home is built to last with hardie board style siding and stone accents. If you have been looking for great beach living in a private community, close to the water and 30A, this is the ONE. Call today

20. 2026-04-02
    listed $649,000 Active 1261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1261 chars)

    RELOCATED SELLER IS HIGHLY MOTIVATED AND READY TO MAKE A GREAT DEAL. Generous incentives include $5,000 for new appliances plus $10,000 towards Buyer's closing costs. The home has just been freshly painted and features new flooring throughout. Welcome to Whisper Dunes, Panama City Beaches beautiful neighborhood on the west end. 339 Blue Sage Road is a 5 bedroom, 3 bath home that looks and feels like a brand new home. Everyone is looking for that open floor plan and this one doesn't disappoint. The feel of the home is a craftsman style with shaker style cabinets and granite counter tops along with stylish crown molding throughout. the kitchen features a huge island and a generous stainless steel appliance package. The living room is open to the kitchen for the spacious feel that you expect from a home built for entertaining. A luxurious master suite features dual vanities, walk in shower, separate soaking tub and large walk in closet. All of the remaining bedrooms are very large and perfect for those needing the extra space. The exterior of the home is built to last with hardie board style siding and stone accents. If you have been looking for great beach living in a private community, close to the water and 30A, this is the ONE. Call today

21. 2026-03-24
    historical
22. 2026-02-02
    price $599,000
23. 2026-01-09
    status Active
24. 2026-01-03
    historical
25. 2025-12-03
    price $625,000
26. 2025-09-24
    listed $649,000 Active
27. 2016-09-14
    soldstatus $345,268
28. 2016-03-07
    listed $344,104

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,906 · $492/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,906 · $492/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$5,906
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,357
• − Management: −$4,357
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable loss: −$16,477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,954
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+81.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $625,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $649,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $599,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $625,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $649,000 CPARMLS
• 2016-09-14 Sold (MLS) $345,268 CPARMLS
• 2016-03-07 Listed $344,104 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+28.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,906 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.