15146 SE 122nd Ave · Happy Valley, OR 97015

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition $122/sqft · 80% above area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into a quiet, secluded area of Indian Bluff with a beautiful view of Mt. Hood, this move-in ready home offers comfort, updates, and a peaceful setting!This home has a new roof (2023), energy-efficient windows (2024), and fresh paint inside and out, so it feels clean and updated right away. The electrical panel has also been updated. You will stay comfortable all year with a heat pump that keeps the home cool in the summer and warm in the winter, plus a wood stove (inspected last year) that adds extra warmth on colder days.Inside, there is a separate dining room and a large family room. The TV in the family room can stay if you would like. The kitchen features butcher block countertops, updated stainless steel appliances (all included), lots of storage, and a walk-in pantry.The primary bedroom has a built-in storage system in closet and its own updated bathroom, giving you a private space to relax. On the other side of the home, there are two more bedrooms with walk-in closets and a second full bathroom, which gives nice separation and flexibility.Outside, you can enjoy the covered front porch, perfect for relaxing. There are also raised planter boxes with a watering system for easy gardening. The home includes an extra-long carport and two storage sheds. The front yard can be fenced, making it a great option for pets.This home is in a desirable, all-ages community near Clackamas County. It is dog-friendly, and everyone who lives here is an owner—no rentals allowed, which helps create a strong sense of community. Public transportation is right outside the neighborhood, making it easy to get around.Reach out for a showing—welcome home!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Wood stove
• Heat pump

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• HEAT PUMP
• WOOD STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.5% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#76 in OR, #3,386 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.40%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,597
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 80.32%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15146 SE 122nd Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	0mo	$181,000	$120	100
15174 SE 122nd Ave #87	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+2%)	1mo	$198,000	$129	95
15116 SE 122nd Ave #58	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	8mo	$130,000	$97	73
14996 SE 122nd Ave #48	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	14mo	$165,000	$127	63
13640 SE Highway 212 #10	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	1mo	$100,000	$69	57
13900 SE Highway 212 #62	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-4%)	4mo	$84,000	$58	50
13640 SE Highway 212 #81	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	19mo	$119,200	$78	48
13640 SE Highway 212 #89	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-14%)	8mo	$40,000	$31	34
13640 SE Highway 212 #69	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	10mo	$105,200	$81	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $8,385
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $53,330
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97015

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12301 SE Hubbard Rd Clackamas, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,063	$2.20	10d	4	0.13mi
13300 SE Hubbard Rd Clackamas, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	818	$2,290	$2.80	1d	6	0.32mi
13898 SE Rogers Ln Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,599	$1.75	43d	1	0.71mi
13777 SE 115th Ave Clackamas, OR	3.0	3.0	2088	$3,495	$1.67	23d	1	0.78mi
13120 SE 128th Ave Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1861	$2,900	$1.56	43d	1	0.89mi
14439 SE Oregon Trail Dr Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,615	$1.58	1d	1	1.03mi
14095 SE Summerfield Loop Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1453	$2,695	$1.85	43d	1	1.04mi
14154 SE Summerfield Loop Unit 14194 Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1125	$2,250	$2.00	23d	1	1.13mi
14194 SE Summerfield Loop Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1125	$2,250	$2.00	23d	1	1.16mi
11480 SE Sunnyside Rd Clackamas, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,258	$2.41	1d	16	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   price $185,000 1680-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1680 chars)

   Tucked into a quiet, secluded area of Indian Bluff with a beautiful view of Mt. Hood, this move-in ready home offers comfort, updates, and a peaceful setting!This home has a new roof (2023), energy-efficient windows (2024), and fresh paint inside and out, so it feels clean and updated right away. The electrical panel has also been updated. You will stay comfortable all year with a heat pump that keeps the home cool in the summer and warm in the winter, plus a wood stove (inspected last year) that adds extra warmth on colder days.Inside, there is a separate dining room and a large family room. The TV in the family room can stay if you would like. The kitchen features butcher block countertops, updated stainless steel appliances (all included), lots of storage, and a walk-in pantry.The primary bedroom has a built-in storage system in closet and its own updated bathroom, giving you a private space to relax. On the other side of the home, there are two more bedrooms with walk-in closets and a second full bathroom, which gives nice separation and flexibility.Outside, you can enjoy the covered front porch, perfect for relaxing. There are also raised planter boxes with a watering system for easy gardening. The home includes an extra-long carport and two storage sheds. The front yard can be fenced, making it a great option for pets.This home is in a desirable, all-ages community near Clackamas County. It is dog-friendly, and everyone who lives here is an owner—no rentals allowed, which helps create a strong sense of community. Public transportation is right outside the neighborhood, making it easy to get around.Reach out for a showing—welcome home!

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $195,000 Active 1680-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1680 chars)

   Tucked into a quiet, secluded area of Indian Bluff with a beautiful view of Mt. Hood, this move-in ready home offers comfort, updates, and a peaceful setting!This home has a new roof (2023), energy-efficient windows (2024), and fresh paint inside and out, so it feels clean and updated right away. The electrical panel has also been updated. You will stay comfortable all year with a heat pump that keeps the home cool in the summer and warm in the winter, plus a wood stove (inspected last year) that adds extra warmth on colder days.Inside, there is a separate dining room and a large family room. The TV in the family room can stay if you would like. The kitchen features butcher block countertops, updated stainless steel appliances (all included), lots of storage, and a walk-in pantry.The primary bedroom has a built-in storage system in closet and its own updated bathroom, giving you a private space to relax. On the other side of the home, there are two more bedrooms with walk-in closets and a second full bathroom, which gives nice separation and flexibility.Outside, you can enjoy the covered front porch, perfect for relaxing. There are also raised planter boxes with a watering system for easy gardening. The home includes an extra-long carport and two storage sheds. The front yard can be fenced, making it a great option for pets.This home is in a desirable, all-ages community near Clackamas County. It is dog-friendly, and everyone who lives here is an owner—no rentals allowed, which helps create a strong sense of community. Public transportation is right outside the neighborhood, making it easy to get around.Reach out for a showing—welcome home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,309
• − Management: −$2,309
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $4,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,151
• After-tax cash flow: $6,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home offers comfort, updates, and a peaceful setting with a beautiful view of Mt. Hood. The home has a new roof, energy-efficient windows, and fresh paint, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and add value to the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance the bathroom's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and add value to the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance the bathroom's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Happy Valley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #3386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 34,567
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,433
• Household income: $87,333
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.50%
• Current HPI: 295.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $185,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $195,000 RMLS