127 Mallard Dr Unit M127 · Pontoon Beach, IL 62040

$15,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as scenic views, community events, and a playground, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $15,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service
• Home design: Spec home, plan 94264; Located at 127 Mallard Dr Unit M127, Pontoon Beach, IL 62040

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $925 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $16k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,042 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Granite City CUSD 9 (suburban): math 9% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #570 of 620 in IL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $110 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $477 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $15,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 76.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 249.41%
• DSCR: 12.10
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.27×
• Total profit: $54,647
• Equity at exit: $2,371

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.20×
• Total profit: $116,639
• Equity at exit: $1,375

Cash invested: $4,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62040

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$83
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$20 /mo · $238/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $925

Break-even live

Break-even rent $139

Max offer price $15,900

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,975
• Closing costs: $477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4078 Kathy Dr Pontoon Beach, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	1d	7	0.89mi
6 Georgetown Dr Granite City, IL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,250	$1.16	21d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 507-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $15,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$891
• − Property taxes: −$238
• − Insurance: −$80
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$463
• Taxable income: $11,538
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,769
• After-tax cash flow: $8,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granite City CUSD 9
• NCES district ID: 1717280
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,082
• Composite: 9.15/100
• National rank: #9864
• State rank: #570 of 620 in IL

Livability — Pontoon Beach

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #19961

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pontoon Beach, IL
• County: Madison County · 189,064 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,404
• Household income: $60,031
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.88%
• Current HPI: 204.4612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B