Lincoln F Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$298,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,546 sqft · SingleFamily · 247 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing The Lincoln Select F Floor Plan - New Home Design Available in DFW, TXThe Lincoln Select F offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1546 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space that adapts to your needs. From everyday routines to special moments, this layout is built to support how you live - with comfort, functionality, and style in mind. Features like a smart one-story concept, dedicated study niche, full utility room, and a spacious living area create a flexible foundation for personalization and convenience. Whether you're relaxing, hosting, working from home, or simply enjoying daily life, the Lincoln Select F provides the right spaces in the right places. Available in select First Texas Homes communities across DFW, this plan can be tailored with structural options and design finishes. Explore the Lincoln Select F today and discover how First Texas Homes makes it easy to create a home that feels truly yours.

Key facts

• Full utility room
• Spacious living area
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SMART ONE-STORY CONCEPT
• DEDICATED STUDY NICHE
• FULL UTILITY ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $298,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $344,277.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-573 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,579 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.14%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,277
• List price: $298,950
• Delta: -13.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1346 Chisos Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+1%)	18mo	$317,900	$204	73
1917 Huron Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,743 (+13%)	0mo	$319,999	$184	70
1380 Chisos Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,743 (+13%)	12mo	$324,900	$186	65
1362 Chisos Way	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (+10%)	18mo	$329,900	$195	57
1230 Burney Ct	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (+10%)	18mo	$329,900	$195	57
2352 Bell Way	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,762 (+14%)	2mo	$359,429	$204	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-95,854
• Equity at exit: $51,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-144,579
• Equity at exit: $29,767

Cash invested: $96,398 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,286 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,805
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$430 /mo · $5,164/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,012

Max offer price $261,298

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,069
• Closing costs: $10,328
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1374 Chisos Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,250	$1.33	1d	1	0.10mi
12200 Helms Trl Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,885	$2.15	1d	1	0.79mi
1003 Windmill Farms Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1081	$2,170	$2.01	1d	37	1.16mi
1876 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$2,950	$1.43	43d	1	1.26mi
1002 Manassas Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,250	$1.36	5d	1	1.31mi
1002 Manassas Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1648	$1,999	$1.21	43d	1	1.31mi
1111 Cumberland Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,750	$1.23	43d	1	1.33mi
1123 Singletree Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,750	$1.17	24d	1	1.34mi
1123 Singletree Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,750	$1.17	2d	1	1.34mi
1888 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$3,235	$1.65	7d	1	1.35mi
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,350	$1.07	43d	1	1.45mi
1848 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	43d	1	1.45mi
1201 Cumberland Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2077	$2,100	$1.01	7d	1	1.46mi
1820 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,245	$1.18	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,950 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,950 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,950 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,950 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,950 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,950 Active 241 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,950 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,950 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,950 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $298,950 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,950 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,950 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,950 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,950 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $298,950 940-char remark

    Show marketing remark (940 chars)

    Introducing The Lincoln Select F Floor Plan - New Home Design Available in DFW, TXThe Lincoln Select F offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1546 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space that adapts to your needs. From everyday routines to special moments, this layout is built to support how you live - with comfort, functionality, and style in mind. Features like a smart one-story concept, dedicated study niche, full utility room, and a spacious living area create a flexible foundation for personalization and convenience. Whether you're relaxing, hosting, working from home, or simply enjoying daily life, the Lincoln Select F provides the right spaces in the right places. Available in select First Texas Homes communities across DFW, this plan can be tailored with structural options and design finishes. Explore the Lincoln Select F today and discover how First Texas Homes makes it easy to create a home that feels truly yours.

16. 2025-10-14
    listed $296,950 Active 940-char remark

    Show marketing remark (940 chars)

    Introducing The Lincoln Select F Floor Plan - New Home Design Available in DFW, TXThe Lincoln Select F offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1546 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space that adapts to your needs. From everyday routines to special moments, this layout is built to support how you live - with comfort, functionality, and style in mind. Features like a smart one-story concept, dedicated study niche, full utility room, and a spacious living area create a flexible foundation for personalization and convenience. Whether you're relaxing, hosting, working from home, or simply enjoying daily life, the Lincoln Select F provides the right spaces in the right places. Available in select First Texas Homes communities across DFW, this plan can be tailored with structural options and design finishes. Explore the Lincoln Select F today and discover how First Texas Homes makes it easy to create a home that feels truly yours.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,285
• − Property taxes: −$5,164
• − Insurance: −$1,721
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,194
• − Management: −$2,194
• − Depreciation: −$10,015
• Taxable loss: −$13,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,155
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $298,950 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Listed $296,950 Zillow