15395 Cedarwood Ln #104 · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$425,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · Condo public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2001 $863/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the best of indoor-outdoor living with this rarely available “garden unit” in the highly desirable Bermuda Bay at Bay Forest—being offered turnkey furnished for immediate enjoyment. This first-floor end unit stands out with two private outdoor spaces, including a walled front patio perfect for gardening, grilling, or relaxing in your own secluded setting. You’ll also love the direct access from the attached one-car garage, allowing you to enter your home conveniently through the patio—no elevators or long hallways. Inside, the spacious layout features a large kitchen with ample cabinetry, pantry storage, and in-unit laundry for added convenience. The open

Key facts

• Screened rear lanai
• In-unit laundry
• Walled front patio

Tags

• TWO PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACES
• WALLED FRONT PATIO
• DIRECT ACCESS FROM GARAGE
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• SCREENED REAR LANAI
• UPDATED EN-SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: One unit per floor in the building; building contains 15 units; complex has 87 units; single-floor unit
• Financial info: Quarterly condo fee (listed); Total annual recurring fees reported; Total one-time fees reported
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly condo fee; Professional management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, bocce, shuffleboard, bike/jog path, library, streetlights; Maintenance coverage: insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, pest control (exterior), sewer, street maintenance, trash removal, water, reserve, manager, legal/accounting, master association fee included

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water (assessment paid); Central sewer (assessment paid); Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise building (1–3 stories); Built in 2001; Concrete block construction; Rear exposure faces southwest; Located in the Bay Forest development (Bermuda Bay, lot/unit 104); Regular lot, wooded area view
• Construction: Tile roof; Concrete block construction; Stucco finish; Built in 2001
• Exterior features: Courtyard; Shutters for storm protection; Single-hung windows; Stucco exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator / refrigerator-freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Split bedroom floor plan; Den (study); Family room; Screened lanai/porch; Dining area (family); Dining area (living); Turnkey furnished; Common elevator
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $412k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,847/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $425k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $412,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.97%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-68,038
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-93,445
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,180/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$863
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,018
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,557

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	0.04mi
285 Naples Cove Dr #1103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,475	$1.95	23d	1	0.05mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln Unit 1-201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,000	$4.67	23d	1	0.07mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,300	$4.90	14d	1	0.07mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	21d	1	0.08mi
290 Naples Cove Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1327	$3,400	$2.56	23d	3	0.09mi
15191 Cedarwood Ln #2602 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,300	$1.82	23d	1	0.14mi
15161 Cedarwood Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$4,000	$3.16	23d	3	0.19mi
386 Emerald Bay Cir Unit G4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	0.27mi
341 Emerald Bay Cir Unit T5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$4,500	$2.79	23d	1	0.34mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,000	$2.96	23d	1	0.36mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$5,900	$3.96	23d	1	0.36mi
298 Emerald Bay Cir Unit K6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,750	$3.95	23d	1	0.38mi
505 Lake Louise Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.53mi
1001 Arbor Lake Dr Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1755	$3,800	$2.16	23d	2	0.54mi
513 Lake Louise Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,300	$3.67	23d	1	0.60mi
28940 Bermuda Pointe Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,500	$5.11	23d	1	0.61mi
28720 Bermuda Bay Way #205 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,200	$2.01	14d	1	0.72mi
526 Lake Louise Cir Unit 4-403 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$6,500	$3.74	23d	1	0.75mi
14780 Glen Eden Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2184	$8,000	$3.66	23d	1	0.77mi
28712 Carmel Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$9,250	$5.69	23d	1	0.84mi
3930 Windward Passage Cir #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$1,900	$1.29	16d	1	0.87mi
999 E Valley Dr Unit 1073522P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$9,929	$5.95	21d	1	0.87mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	23d	1	0.90mi
28070 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2008	$12,000	$5.98	23d	1	0.91mi
3951 Windward Passage Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1397	$5,200	$3.72	23d	1	0.91mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1604	$9,500	$5.92	23d	3	0.92mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd #203 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$13,000	$8.10	13d	1	0.93mi
262 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0–3.0	1864	$10,500	$5.63	23d	2	0.93mi
74 7th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$3,150	$2.80	23d	1	0.97mi
28211 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1918	$10,500	$5.47	23d	1	0.97mi
3941 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,000	$1.66	23d	1	0.97mi
3921 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$3,500	$2.91	23d	1	0.99mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	16d	1	1.07mi
28450 Winthrop Cir Unit 1546014P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$7,804	$4.12	14d	1	1.07mi
211 6th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$11,900	$5.95	23d	1	1.07mi
64 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1231	$3,700	$3.01	23d	2	1.13mi
28611 Carriage Home Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1433	$2,550	$1.78	23d	1	1.15mi
60 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1860	$11,400	$6.13	23d	1	1.16mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1864	$9,700	$5.20	14d	2	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $863 · $10,356/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 669-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $425,000 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,180 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,528 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 94% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,180
• − Insurance: −$2,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,653
• − Management: −$4,653
• − HOA: −$10,356
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$906
• After-tax cash flow: $3,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+157.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $425,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2001-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,180 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.