158 Park Dr · Lower Swatara, PA 17057

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

Built 1996 Fair condition $58/sqft · 13% below area Est $63k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Imagine yourself taking a stroll along Lisa Lake this spring. You can with this 1996 Skyline Homes single-wide! Only one owner. Newer roof. Newer propane furnace. Newer stainless steel propane stove and side-by-side refrigerator included. Newer Bosch frontloader washer and dryer and platforms/pedestals included. Close to Penn State Harrisburg and Harrisburg International Airport. What are you waiting for? This won’t be on the market long! Special manufactured home financing available.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Built 1996
• Listed 134 days

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER PROPANE FURNACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CLOSE TO PENN STATE HARRISBURG

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Middletown Area SD (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #368 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.91%
• DSCR: 3.93
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,123
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -12.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Crescent St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,087 (+14%)	3mo	$240,000	$221	63
101 Lake Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	8mo	$37,500	$45	62
71 Lake Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+11%)	7mo	$55,000	$52	58
90 Lake Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	18mo	$63,000	$75	52
110 Mckinney Ln	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	840 (-12%)	9mo	$58,900	$70	38
468 2nd St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,075 (+13%)	10mo	$215,000	$200	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $38,602
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $89,072
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17057

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $565

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
625 Willow St Unit 610J *U/R Highspire, PA	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,250	$1.24	23d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-02-04
    listed $55,000 Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    Imagine yourself taking a stroll along Lisa Lake this spring. You can with this 1996 Skyline Homes single-wide! Only one owner. Newer roof. Newer propane furnace. Newer stainless steel propane stove and side-by-side refrigerator included. Newer Bosch frontloader washer and dryer and platforms/pedestals included. Close to Penn State Harrisburg and Harrisburg International Airport. What are you waiting for? This won’t be on the market long! Special manufactured home financing available.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$1,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $9,063
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,175
• After-tax cash flow: $7,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-wide mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its curb appeal and interior condition, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and snow-covered
• Minor Interior paint — Faded and needs touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both Deep clean and organize interior — Enhances living space and creates a more inviting atmosphere

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and snow-covered	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior paint · Faded and needs touch-up	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both Deep clean and organize interior — Enhances living space and creates a more inviting atmosphere ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215240
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,128
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5567
• State rank: #368 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lower Swatara

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,560
• Household income: $73,407
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 748.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.17%
• Current HPI: 265.6077
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS