2411 River Rd #2644 · Wisconsin Dells, WI 53965

$200,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Condo · 368 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $112/sqft · 17% below area Est $241k · 17% under $827/mo HOA · 46% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.4/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on the sixth floor, this spacious three bedroom condo faces the Chula Vista Resort and Golf Course! Two fireplaces, granite counter tops throughout the unit, stainless steel appliances and a whirlpool tub. It is considered a two key unit and can be rented as a 1 BR, 2 BR and 3 BR! The resort offers great amenities such as onsite spa, 18 hole golf course, mini golf, arcade, multiple restaurants including award winning Kaminski's Chop House and indoor/outdoor waterparks. This popular unit can be yours to enjoy and apply for the overnight rental program to help supplement cost of living.

Key facts

• Onsite spa
• Sixth floor
• Whirlpool tub

Tags

• SIXTH FLOOR
• TWO FIREPLACES
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WHIRLPOOL TUB
• ONSITE SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-790 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $86k (57.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (57.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#100 in WI, #2,661 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Wisconsin Dells School District (town): math 44% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 342 in WI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 1,041 statewide, top 40%, 608 students, 57% FRL); Wisconsin Dells Middle School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade D-, #112 of 383 statewide, top 30%, 387 students, 54% FRL); Wisconsin Dells High (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #349 of 483 statewide, top 75%, 603 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 126 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 368 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.

Recommended offer $85,653 (57.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 368 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.93%
• DSCR: 0.25
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,407
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -17.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2411 River Rd #2243	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,784 (0%)	5mo	$190,000	$107	96
2411 River Rd #2459	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,784 (0%)	11mo	$192,500	$108	91
2411 River Rd #2559	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,784 (0%)	13mo	$195,000	$109	89
2411 River Rd #2232	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	11mo	$203,000	$100	67
2411 River Rd #2437	0.19mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	1mo	$200,000	$98	66
2411 River Rd #2226	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	12mo	$204,000	$100	66
2411 River Rd #2210	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	13mo	$185,000	$91	66
2411 River Rd #2515	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	6mo	$168,000	$112	61
2411 River Rd #2136	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	6mo	$130,000	$87	61
2411 River Rd #2318	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	11mo	$158,500	$106	57
2411 River Rd #2628	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	14mo	$147,000	$98	55
2411 River Rd #2233	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	14mo	$170,000	$113	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -49.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-82,203
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -92.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.40×
• Total profit: $-134,214
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $224,900 ($126/sqft)
• Median days on market: 375 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 53965

• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$827
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,796

Max offer price $85,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-652	-5% $-721	+0% $-790	+5% $-859	+10% $-928
Rent	-10% $-932	-5% $-861	+0% $-790	+5% $-719	+10% $-648
Rate	-1.0pp $-690	-0.5pp $-739	base $-790	+0.5pp $-842	+1.0pp $-895

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail $827/mo · $9,924/yr condo

• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $200,000 Active 368 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $200,000 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 360 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 359 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 358 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $200,000 Active 357 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $200,000 Active 356 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 348 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 347 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $200,000 Active 343 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $200,000 Active 342 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $200,000 Active 341 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $200,000 Active 340 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $200,000 Active 339 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $200,000 Active 338 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $200,000 Active 337 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $200,000 Active 336 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $200,000 Active 335 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $200,000 Active 334 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $200,000 Active 333 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $200,000 Active 332 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $200,000 Active 331 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $200,000 Active 330 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $200,000 Active 329 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $200,000 Active 328 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $200,000 Active 327 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $200,000 Active 326 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $200,000 Active 325 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $200,000 Active 324 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $200,000 Active 323 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 322 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 321 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $200,000 Active 320 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 319 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 318 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 317 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 314 DOM
44. 2026-07-29
    days on market $200,000 Active 312 DOM
45. 2026-07-27
    days on market $200,000 Active 310 DOM
46. 2026-07-25
    days on market $200,000 Active 308 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $200,000 Active 307 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $200,000 Active 306 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $200,000 Active 305 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $200,000 Active 304 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − HOA: −$9,924
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$12,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,082
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,920–$26,760 screening

This spacious three-bedroom condo is in good condition with modern amenities and a great location at the Chula Vista Resort. It's ready for immediate occupancy and can be rented as a 1 BR, 2 BR, or 3 BR unit.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more renters ↑
• Both Renovating bathrooms — Improves functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spring Hill Elementary F WI #372/1,041 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Wisconsin Dells Middle School D- WI #112/383 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Wisconsin Dells High F WI #349/483 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wisconsin Dells School District
• NCES district ID: 5517040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,233
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4810
• State rank: #135 of 342 in WI

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Wisconsin Dells

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #2661

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wisconsin Dells, WI
• County: Adams County · 18,560 people
• City population: 10,818
• Metro: Madison, WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,818
• Household income: $66,667
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,560 people
• By 2030: 17,523 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 14,888 · -19.8%
• By 2050: 12,359 · -33.4%
• By 2075: 8,662 · -53.3%
• By 2100: 6,000 · -67.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 34.6% · R 60.4% · Other 5.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.2pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+25.7 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+8.7 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.85%
• Current HPI: 234.2781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Madison, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $200,000 SCWMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $210,000 SCWMLS