2609 S 38th St · Abilene, TX 79605

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1960 7,492 sqft lot Est $147k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a charming, well-maintained street in Southside Abilene, this property offers proximity to Red Bud Park, as well as a variety of restaurants, shops, and conveniences. It's just minutes away from Cooper High School. Step into a luminous, open living space flooded with natural light, complemented by new interior paint. The spacious kitchen boasts washer dryer hookups and a convenient pantry. Each bedroom offers ample space for comfort. Enjoy the convenience of an oversized two-car garage complete with additional storage shelving and a dedicated workspace. The expansive backyard provides an ideal setting for outdoor games and delightful BBQ gatherings.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Washer dryer hookups
• Convenient pantry

Tags

• PROXIMITY TO RED BUD PARK
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• WASHER DRYER HOOKUPS
• CONVENIENT PANTRY
• OVERSIZED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHELVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel/Tax reference: THORNTON HEIGHTS, BLOCK 2, LOT 10
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; Second mortgage: no
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: No specific security features provided
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Built in 1960; Not attached to another unit; Located in the Thornton Heights subdivision
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Preowned
• Exterior features: Back yard; Chain link fencing; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling components
• Interior features: Cable TV available; One living area; One dining area; Two total main rooms
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alcorta El (math 35% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 451 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+32.1%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.10%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,486
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2801 S 39th St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,035 (-1%)	24mo	$155,000	$150	73
2533 S 41st St	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,146 (+10%)	14mo	$173,000	$151	62
29 Crossroads Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,132 (+8%)	9mo	$159,900	$141	60
2133 S 35th St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,105 (+6%)	19mo	$165,750	$150	58
2124 S 34th St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,201 (+15%)	12mo	$140,000	$117	42
3742 Crossroads Dr	0.38mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,188 (+14%)	10mo	$165,000	$139	41
2526 Bennett Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,163 (+11%)	20mo	$135,000	$116	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $117
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $71,400
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79605

• Rents YoY: 32.1%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,618/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2701 S 40th St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,995	$1.67	21d	1	0.16mi
3373 S 27th St Abilene, TX	2.0	2.0	1436	$1,700	$1.18	44d	1	1.11mi
4925 Greenslope Dr Unit C Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	13d	1	1.25mi
1934 Portland Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,900	$1.71	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 564-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,618 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$676/yr (+$56/mo · 25.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,618
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$180
• After-tax cash flow: $3,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,467
• Household income: $62,929
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1096.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.75%
• Current HPI: 201.2341
• Rent YoY: ▲ 32.08%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+115.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-04-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-04-02 Listed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2022-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-10-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $83,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,618 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.