Brody Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$495,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,826 sqft · SingleFamily · 131 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This plan is available on a 65' lot! Discover the epitome of desirable living in this exceptional one-and-a-half-story home that combines abundant space with thoughtful functionality. Featuring four generously sized bedrooms, three full bathrooms, a powder bath, a private study, and an inviting game room, this home is designed to accommodate the needs of modern living while maintaining a warm and welcoming feel. Vaulted and tray ceilings throughout the home add architectural character and an elevated sense of style.

Key facts

• Formal study
• Backyard oasis
• Indoor utility room

Tags

• ONE AND A HALF LEVELS
• FORMAL STUDY
• GAME ROOM
• VAULTED AND TRAY CEILINGS
• INDOOR UTILITY ROOM
• BACKYARD OASIS

🏗️ New construction. The $495,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $586,914.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $496k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($360/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $496k).
• Recommended offer: $436k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 624 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,172/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $436,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $586,914
• List price: $495,990
• Delta: -15.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Poe Pkwy	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,849 (+1%)	8mo	$599,900	$211	74
117 Poe Pkwy	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-2%)	11mo	$599,990	$216	72
172 Landon Path	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-3%)	10mo	$519,990	$190	64
237 Bryant Park	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-2%)	11mo	$569,990	$205	62
219 Bryant Park	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-2%)	12mo	$588,990	$212	61
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,613 (-8%)	3mo	$625,000	$239	60
936 County Road 375	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,023 (+7%)	4mo	$768,000	$254	56
235 Poe	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,101 (+10%)	8mo	$599,900	$193	55
280 Sittre Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,003 (+6%)	8mo	$545,000	$181	54
267 Sweet Rose	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+10%)	4mo	$549,000	$177	48
242 Sittre Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+10%)	12mo	$515,900	$167	46
229 Raven Rd	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (+8%)	9mo	$761,174	$250	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-93,117
• Equity at exit: $87,511

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-78,309
• Equity at exit: $50,746

Cash invested: $164,336 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 67 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 40.2 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $568,900 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 130 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,078
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$734 /mo · $8,804/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,086
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,134

Max offer price $586,914

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $233	+0% $30	+5% $-173	+10% $-376
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-174	+0% $30	+5% $234	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $326	-0.5pp $179	base $30	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $146,728
• Closing costs: $17,607
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$5,500	$1.37	28d	1	0.12mi
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	100d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	139d	1	0.88mi
169 Sage Sparrow San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2539	$2,150	$0.85	67d	1	1.28mi
162 Owl Burrow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,100	$0.94	0d	1	1.29mi
208 Wild Duck San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,300	$0.97	2d	1	1.32mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	140d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	100d	1	1.45mi
102 Nesting Tree San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2354	$1,800	$0.76	40d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Brody Plan, Castroville, TX 78009
• Financial info: List price $515,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Plan: BrodyNew construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Living area approximately 2,826

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $495,990 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $495,990 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $495,990 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $495,990 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $495,990 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $495,990 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $495,990 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $495,990 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $495,990 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $495,990 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $495,990 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $495,990 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $495,990 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $495,990 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $495,990 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $495,990 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $495,990 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $495,990 Active 107 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $495,990 Active 106 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $495,990 Active 105 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $495,990 Active 104 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $495,990 Active 102 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $495,990 Active 101 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $495,990 Active 100 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $495,990 Active 99 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $495,990 Active 98 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $495,990 Active 97 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $495,990 Active 96 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $495,990 Active 95 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $495,990 Active 94 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $495,990 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $495,990 Active 92 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $495,990 Active 91 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $495,990 Active 90 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $495,990 Active 89 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $495,990 Active 88 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $495,990 Active 87 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $495,990 Active 86 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $495,990 Active 85 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $495,990 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $495,990 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $495,990 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $495,990 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $495,990 Active 77 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $495,990 Active 75 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $495,990 Active 74 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $495,990 Active 72 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $495,990 Active 70 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $495,990 Active 69 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $495,990 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,876
• − Property taxes: −$8,804
• − Insurance: −$2,935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,965
• − Management: −$4,965
• − Depreciation: −$17,074
• Taxable loss: −$9,553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,293
• After-tax cash flow: $2,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,130–$42,390 screening

This home is in excellent condition with modern features and a good curb appeal. It requires minor exterior painting and cleaning of gutters to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall home appearance. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Update flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can significantly enhance the home's resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability, both for resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Loma Alta Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,494
• Household income: $102,724
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Brody Plan, Castroville, TX 78009
• Financial info: List price $515,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Plan: BrodyNew construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Living area approximately 2,826