Brody Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$495,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,826 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This plan is available on a 65' lot! Discover the epitome of desirable living with this exceptional home that offers a plethora of coveted features. Set across one and a half levels, this residence presents an abundance of space and functionality. With four generously sized bedrooms, three full bathrooms, a convenient powder room, a formal study, and an inviting game room, this home caters to all your needs. As you step inside, be greeted by the elegance of vaulted and tray ceilings that grace every corner, lending an air of sophistication to the interior. Practicality meets style with a thoughtfully designed mudset area near the indoor utility room, ensuring a clutter-free entrance, while

Key facts

• Formal study
• Backyard oasis
• Indoor utility room

Tags

• ONE AND A HALF LEVELS
• FORMAL STUDY
• GAME ROOM
• VAULTED AND TRAY CEILINGS
• INDOOR UTILITY ROOM
• BACKYARD OASIS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Brody Plan, Castroville, TX 78009
• Financial info: List price $515,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Plan: Brody; New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Living area approximately 2,826

🏗️ New construction. The $495,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $591,739.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $496k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $496k).
• Recommended offer: $481k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($481k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $481,110 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.04%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $591,739
• List price: $495,990
• Delta: -16.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Poe Pkwy	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,849 (+1%)	5mo	$599,900	$211	76
117 Poe Pkwy	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-2%)	8mo	$599,990	$216	74
172 Landon Path	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-3%)	6mo	$519,990	$190	66
237 Bryant Park	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-2%)	8mo	$569,990	$205	65
219 Bryant Park	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-2%)	9mo	$588,990	$212	63
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,613 (-8%)	0mo	$625,000	$239	63
936 County Road 375	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,023 (+7%)	1mo	$768,000	$254	59
235 Poe	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,101 (+10%)	5mo	$599,900	$193	58
280 Sittre Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,003 (+6%)	4mo	$545,000	$181	56
267 Sweet Rose	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+10%)	1mo	$549,000	$177	50
242 Sittre Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+10%)	9mo	$515,900	$167	49
229 Raven Rd	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (+8%)	6mo	$761,174	$250	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-60,252
• Equity at exit: $88,230

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-6,334
• Equity at exit: $51,163

Cash invested: $165,687 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,103
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$740 /mo · $8,876/yr
• Insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,235
• Net cashflow: $558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,176

Max offer price $591,739

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $967	-5% $763	+0% $558	+5% $354	+10% $149
Rent	-10% $93	-5% $326	+0% $558	+5% $790	+10% $1,023
Rate	-1.0pp $856	-0.5pp $709	base $558	+0.5pp $405	+1.0pp $249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,935
• Closing costs: $17,752
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	5d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	44d	1	0.88mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	45d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	5d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $495,990 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $515,990 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $515,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $515,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $515,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $515,990 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $515,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $515,990 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $515,990 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $515,990 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $515,990 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $515,990 Active 1235-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,147
• − Property taxes: −$8,876
• − Insurance: −$2,959
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,648
• − Management: −$5,648
• − Depreciation: −$17,214
• Taxable loss: −$2,896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$695
• After-tax cash flow: $7,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern features and a good curb appeal. It requires minor exterior painting and cleaning of gutters to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall home appearance.
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic and energy efficiency.
• Both Update flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can significantly enhance the home's resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability, both for resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall home appearance. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Update flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can significantly enhance the home's resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and marketability, both for resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B