425 Twentieth Century Unit A-04 · Turlock, CA 95380

$25,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1959 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained single-wide mobile home featuring 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom, plus an extra storage unit in the back. Enjoy the nice side and backyard with a fruit tree, perfect for relaxing or gardening. Located in the quiet senior park of Sun Garden Community right on 20th Century Blvd, near the Stanislaus County Fairgrounds. A peaceful and comfortable place to call home.

Key facts

• Extra storage unit
• Fruit tree
• Parking

Tags

• EXTRA STORAGE UNIT
• FRUIT TREE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount noted as $735
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: no (land lease amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in laundry area
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; Paramount make; Built in 1959; Located in a senior community; Address: 425 Twentieth Century Unit A-04, Turlock, CA
• Construction: Single wide manufactured construction; Paramount manufacturer; Roof details provided in remarks
• Exterior features: Regular-shaped lot; Roof: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Synthetic countertops
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans; Wall-mounted cooling units; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Free standing gas range; Synthetic countertops; Storage area; Dining and living combined
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside (220V outlet in laundry area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 57.4% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 182.56%
• DSCR: 9.12
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.73×
• Total profit: $61,116
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.57×
• Total profit: $130,025
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95380

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1749 N Olive Ave Turlock, CA	1.0	1.0	623	$1,650	$2.65	13d	1	0.78mi
1240 N Olive Ave Unit B Turlock, CA	2.0	1.5	750	$1,650	$2.20	13d	1	0.81mi
1700 N Tully Rd Turlock, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,525	$1.71	13d	1	0.82mi
1317 Colorado Ave Turlock, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,445	$1.93	13d	1	1.01mi
351 E Monte Vista Ave Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	684	$1,810	$2.65	13d	11	1.25mi
3701 Crowell Rd Turlock, CA	1.0	1.0	669	$1,645	$2.46	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $25,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $25,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $30,000 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $13,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,159
• After-tax cash flow: $9,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

A well-maintained single-wide mobile home with average exterior and roof conditions. Minor repairs and painting would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Siding shows signs of wear
• Minor Roof — Roof appears aged

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Seal roof — Prevents water damage and extends roof life

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Siding shows signs of wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Roof · Roof appears aged	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Seal roof — Prevents water damage and extends roof life ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turlock Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600158
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,249
• Composite: 26.58/100
• National rank: #7184
• State rank: #334 of 517 in CA

Livability — Turlock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #11971

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turlock, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 83,043
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,960
• Household income: $74,534
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 14% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -614.27%
• Current HPI: 307.7264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B