1410 Oxbow Dr · Cedar Hill, TX 75104

$420,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,253 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2004 8,930 sqft lot Est $478k · 12% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * PRICE IMPROVEMENT * * Up to $800 Appraisal Credit with Preferred Lender * * RE-INTRODUCING 1410 OXBOW DRIVE in Cedar Hill, TX. Back & better than ever! Welcome to the re-introduction of this beautifully maintained home in the highly sought after Cedar Hill neighborhood of the Creeks at Windmill Hill! This stunning 4-bedroom, 3,253sf home provides an unforgettable first impression. Designed for entertainment with a low-maintenance lifestyle. Some features include a low-maintenance backyard, covered cedar patio, built-in storm shelter and a dedicated mudroom off the garage. Updated Systems: the roof was replaced in 2020, a premium Mathis HVAC and heat pump were installed, and a

Key facts

• Updated systems
• Dedicated mudroom
• Prime location

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE BACKYARD
• COVERED CEDAR PATIO
• BUILT IN STORM SHELTER
• DEDICATED MUDROOM
• UPDATED SYSTEMS
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA loan options; Possession negotiable
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee of $400; HOA covers management fees and security

Exterior

• Parking: Two covered parking spaces; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; garage faces front; Driveway and carport spaces not included
• Security: Burglar alarm; Security system (owned)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Sewer available; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Not attached to other properties; Built in 2004; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Subdivision: Creeks Of Windmill Hill
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2004
• Exterior features: Gutters; Wood fencing; Located in a subdivision; Curbs and sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with jetted tub, separate shower, separate vanities, linen closet, and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on main level; each has a walk-in closet; one features split-bedroom layout
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Fireplace(s) for supplemental heat; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Granite counters; Walk-in closets; Two living areas; Two dining areas; Room count: 11; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $420k).
• Recommended offer: $414k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.5% in Cedar Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#178 in TX, #4,673 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Duncanville ISD (suburban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #711 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: S Gus Alexander Jr El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 374 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 68% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,178/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 1570% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $413,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.43%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $478,191
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1455 Oxbow Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	3,491 (+7%)	2mo	$440,000	$126	77
1435 Delta Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5	3,594 (+10%)	3mo	$425,000	$118	66
1344 Elise St	0.49mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,221 (-1%)	1mo	$475,000	$147	64
1015 Grover Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5	3,139 (-4%)	6mo	$438,000	$140	62
1909 Comanche Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	3,345 (+3%)	6mo	$579,490	$173	57
1801 Windmill Hill Ln	0.45mi	4/3.0	3,452 (+6%)	16mo	$715,000	$207	52
1908 Comanche Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	3,025 (-7%)	11mo	$549,990	$182	44
1125 Essex Dr	0.45mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,949 (-9%)	16mo	$418,000	$142	44
1131 Suffolk Ln	0.45mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,801 (-14%)	8mo	$300,000	$107	42
1928 Comanche Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,128 (-4%)	20mo	$594,990	$190	38
1031 Beaverbrook Ln	0.68mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,430 (+5%)	16mo	$579,990	$169	33
1733 Sagewood Dr	0.68mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,587 (+10%)	19mo	$429,500	$120	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-30,327
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-16,092
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75104

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$854 /mo · $10,249/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,087
• Net cashflow: $826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,132

Max offer price $420,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
936 Bending Oak Dr Cedar Hill, TX	5.0	3.0	3569	$3,375	$0.95	1d	1	0.78mi
1424 Cobblestone Dr Desoto, TX	5.0	3.0	2667	$8,950	$3.36	21d	1	0.90mi
909 Shady Brook Ln Cedar Hill, TX	4.0	2.0	3056	$2,584	$0.85	20d	1	0.95mi
1088 Pondview Dr Cedar Hill, TX	5.0	3.5	2606	$6,000	$2.30	11d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $420,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $430,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $430,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $430,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $430,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $430,000 Active
16. 2026-04-20
    historical
17. 2026-04-02
    price $440,000
18. 2025-12-27
    listed $450,000 Active
19. 2025-05-21
    soldstatus
20. 2004-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,249 · $854/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,249 · $854/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$10,249
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,971
• − Management: −$4,971
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable income: $3,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$889
• After-tax cash flow: $9,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duncanville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,979
• Composite: 21.71/100
• National rank: #8270
• State rank: #711 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cedar Hill

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #4673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Hill, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 49,228
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,228
• Household income: $102,875
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1570.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% Hispanic / Latino 28% White 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.63%
• Current HPI: 287.5359
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $430,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $440,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $450,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,249 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.