2857 405th Ave NE · Stanchfield, MN 55006

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · Other public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1970 2.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1970 single-wide manufactured home in need of repair or removal—ideal opportunity to build new or bring in your own home. Situated on a beautiful lot featuring an older pole building, with existing mound septic system, well, and electric already in place. Pole building is 30'x48' with 12' sidewalls, additional 18'x6' lean too. Great potential for your next project!

Key facts

• Well
• Pole building
• Beautiful lot

Tags

• BEAUTIFUL LOT
• POLE BUILDING
• EXISTING MOUND SEPTIC SYSTEM
• WELL
• ELECTRIC ALREADY IN PLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#891 in MN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Braham Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #170 of 301 in MN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Isanti County in 2024 (28 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Isanti County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $99k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.79%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $77,344
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.55×
• Total profit: $209,397
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55006

• Home prices YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $864

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $99,000 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    1970 single-wide manufactured home in need of repair or removal—ideal opportunity to build new or bring in your own home. Situated on a beautiful lot featuring an older pole building, with existing mound septic system, well, and electric already in place. Pole building is 30'x48' with 12' sidewalls, additional 18'x6' lean too. Great potential for your next project!

17. 2020-03-30
    soldstatus $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $666 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $887 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$666
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,012
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$723
• After-tax cash flow: $3,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Braham Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2706060
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,333
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3987
• State rank: #170 of 301 in MN

Livability — Stanchfield

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #891
• US rank: #26330

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,655

Population outlook (Isanti County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,507 people
• By 2030: 39,545 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 38,556 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 35,837 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 27,423 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 18,928 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Isanti

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 28.6% · R 69.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+38.2 2012: R+18.1 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.01%
• Current HPI: 367.554
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+360.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $99,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $666 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.