386 Blackwatch St · Toledo, OH 48182

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Other · 41 Days on market

Built 1991 3,600 sqft lot $480/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice and super clean, 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths, open floor plan with large living area. Rear deck. Kitchen appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Inverness II mobile home park. Bedford schools.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 41 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Bedford Public Schools (suburban): math 33% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #150 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.67%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $6,815
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $25,996
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$480
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6255 S Telegraph Erie, MI	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,288	$1.09	13d	3	0.32mi
1417 Primrose Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1411	$1,625	$1.15	13d	1	1.22mi
927 W Northgate Pkwy Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	896	$1,100	$1.23	13d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $480 · $5,760/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Very nice and super clean, 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths, open floor plan with large living area. Rear deck. Kitchen appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Inverness II mobile home park. Bedford schools.

2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Very nice and super clean, 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths, open floor plan with large living area. Rear deck. Kitchen appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Inverness II mobile home park. Bedford schools.

3. 2026-05-13
   status Active 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Very nice and super clean, 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths, open floor plan with large living area. Rear deck. Kitchen appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Inverness II mobile home park. Bedford schools.

4. 2026-05-12
   historical 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Very nice and super clean, 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths, open floor plan with large living area. Rear deck. Kitchen appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Inverness II mobile home park. Bedford schools.

5. 2026-04-06
   listed $49,900 Active 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Very nice and super clean, 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths, open floor plan with large living area. Rear deck. Kitchen appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Inverness II mobile home park. Bedford schools.

6. 2026-04-06
   listed $49,900 Active 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (253 chars)

   Very nice and super clean, 3 bedroom home with 2 full baths, open floor plan with large living area. Rear deck. Kitchen appliances included with sale of home. This is a manufactured home on a rented lot in Inverness II mobile home park. Bedford schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,281
• − Management: −$1,281
• − HOA: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $2,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$586
• After-tax cash flow: $2,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604470
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $63,784
• Composite: 38.22/100
• National rank: #4252
• State rank: #150 of 540 in MI

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe · 13,010 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Monroe, MI
• Population (ZIP): 20,705
• Household income: $83,155
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 12.7

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.99%
• Current HPI: 158.2484
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-06 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-06 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS