29 Overbrook Ave · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,038 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1951 9,246 sqft lot Est $265k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Flexible Ranch in Town Of Tonawanda Nice Schools . Located close to a ton of shopping, entertainment-movie theatres, sports and recreational facilities, restaurants . Or Relax in your comfortable ranch. In the Town of Tonawanda Move in ready, well built sturdy ranch, meets multiple needs- Nice size and comfortable space. Detached Garage. Nice House. Some updates Showing starts Wendesday 4/29/26 , Open House Saturday 5/2/26 11 am - 1 pm. Offers Due Tuesday 5/5/26 at 12 pm noon. Thanks

Key facts

• Close to restaurants
• Move in ready
• Close to shopping

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• MOVE IN READY
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO ENTERTAINMENT
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: One-story property; Existing (resale) condition; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular lot (approx. 67 x 138 feet)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, one of which is on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-516/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $212,309 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,690
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 Overbrook Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,042 (+0%)	4mo	$261,000	$250	78
158 Overbrook Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,019 (-2%)	2mo	$255,000	$250	75
440 Lynbrook Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,038 (0%)	7mo	$216,700	$209	73
615 Lynbrook Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,038 (0%)	5mo	$247,900	$239	66
121 Melody Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-1%)	7mo	$270,000	$264	64
542 Lynbrook Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,082 (+4%)	6mo	$327,500	$303	62
162 Fries Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0	972 (-6%)	3mo	$270,000	$278	58
83 Melody Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	952 (-8%)	5mo	$272,950	$287	51
25 Jamaica Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,150 (+11%)	3mo	$215,000	$187	45
98 Jamaica Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	909 (-12%)	1mo	$232,000	$255	42
125 Springfield Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	898 (-14%)	3mo	$255,000	$284	41
240 Koenig Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,175 (+13%)	8mo	$211,500	$180	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-29,608
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,467
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$528 /mo · $6,337/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,244

Max offer price $212,309

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $19	+0% $-43	+5% $-105	+10% $-167
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-129	+0% $-43	+5% $44	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $13	base $-43	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	3d	1	0.09mi
1257 Brighton Rd Tonawanda, NY	4.0	1.0	1268	$2,500	$1.97	16d	1	0.09mi
2776 Eggert Rd #2 Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	972	$1,600	$1.65	24d	1	0.65mi
200 Koenig Rd Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.5	1481	$2,200	$1.49	2d	1	0.67mi
182 Woodcrest Dr Amherst, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,300	$1.67	19d	1	0.76mi
3948 Ridge Lea Rd Unit D Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	952	$1,850	$1.94	2d	1	0.81mi
4765 N Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	44d	1	0.84mi
1410 Deer Lakes Dr Amherst, NY	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,995	$1.53	3d	5	1.20mi
4585 Chestnut Ridge Rd #4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1197	$1,600	$1.34	24d	1	1.21mi
325 Kaymar Dr Unit 325 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,695	$1.58	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,337 · $528/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,337 · $528/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$6,337
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$4,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$979
• After-tax cash flow: $463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $219,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,337 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.