20 Church St · St. Regis Falls, NY 12930

$150,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,934 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1920 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 4 bedroom home has been completely remodeled and is ready for you to enjoy all of the brand new features! This home has a large eat-in kitchen, spacious living room and a large full bath with laundry on the first floor. The second floor provides a half bath and four spacious bedrooms. Renovations include all new drywall, insulation, double pane Pella windows, electrical, electrical panel, plumbing, light fixtures, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, tub/shower, hot water tank, baseboard heaters, flooring and siding! Because of variations in personal preferences, the only items remaining for the owner to complete are appliances and upstairs flooring. This home won't last long becau

Key facts

• New drywall
• Half bath
• Large eat-in kitchen

Tags

• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE FULL BATH
• HALF BATH
• NEW DRYWALL
• NEW INSULATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; Two stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone foundation; Built as two-story structure
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Paved road access; Partial basement with sump pump

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Double-pane windows; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in St. Regis Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Saint Regis Falls Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #699 of 755 in NY (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $150k implies a 413% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,503 (1.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $92,996
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.31×
• Total profit: $264,948
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12930

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,663/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,250

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $220	+0% $178	+5% $135	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $119	+0% $178	+5% $236	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $253	-0.5pp $216	base $178	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2025-10-22
   price $150,000
4. 2025-09-08
   price $169,900
5. 2025-07-05
   price $179,900
6. 2003-07-02
   soldstatus $29,230
7. 2003-07-02
   soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,663 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$436/yr (+$36/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,663
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $2,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saint Regis Falls Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627990
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,831
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #10964
• State rank: #699 of 755 in NY

Livability — St. Regis Falls

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 866

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.45%
• Current HPI: 483.7564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+413.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $150,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $150,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $169,900 ACVMLS
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $179,900 ACVMLS
• 2003-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $29,230 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,663 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.