312 E Oneil Dr · Casa Grande, AZ 88152

$225,910

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Upgraded stainless steel appliances, LPV flooring throughout except master bedroom, 9 foot flat ceilings, oversized windows, oversized carport, shed and 42 upper cabinets custom blue.

Key facts

• Flat ceilings
• Lpv flooring
• Oversized carport

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LPV FLOORING
• FLAT CEILINGS
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS
• OVERSIZED CARPORT
• SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing; Model/plan name: Saguaro; Spec inventory type
• Financial info: List price $225,910

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family spec home — Plan: Saguaro
• Construction: Living area 1533; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $226k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,132 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.11%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,777
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 E O'neil Dr #103	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$140,000	$104	73
312 E O'neil Dr #123	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-3%)	12mo	$189,000	$127	62
312 E O'neil Dr #159	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (-3%)	14mo	$200,000	$135	61
120 W O'neil Dr #84	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-12%)	7mo	$70,000	$52	60
450 W Sunwest Dr #98	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+2%)	12mo	$135,000	$86	56
312 E O'neil Dr #112	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-10%)	14mo	$189,000	$137	54
450 W Sunwest Dr #143	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+2%)	11mo	$75,000	$48	52
450 W Sunwest Dr #68	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-11%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	48
450 W Sunwest Dr #114	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-13%)	6mo	$59,000	$44	42
450 W Sunwest Dr #17	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	11mo	$92,500	$69	40
450 W Sunwest Dr #273	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-11%)	13mo	$89,500	$65	36
450 W Sunwest Dr #149	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-12%)	14mo	$81,000	$60	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $41,057
• Equity at exit: $101,579

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $126,888
• Equity at exit: $156,545

Cash invested: $63,255 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88152

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$282 /mo · $3,389/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,976

Max offer price $225,910

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,478
• Closing costs: $6,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	24d	1	0.25mi
1846 N Princeton Ave Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,750	$0.98	4d	1	0.31mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	0.42mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	22d	1	0.42mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	0.42mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	0.42mi
1775 N Terrace Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,699	$1.04	15d	1	0.62mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	22d	3	0.71mi
1584 N Wood St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1928	$1,800	$0.93	15d	1	0.82mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	24d	1	0.83mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	4d	1	0.83mi
1620 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1090	$2,640	$2.42	1d	1	0.84mi
1153 E Gabrilla Dr Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1689	$1,795	$1.06	20d	1	0.84mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	0.87mi
1161 E O'Neil Dr Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1144	$1,498	$1.31	3d	12	0.90mi
1936 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,723	$1.67	2d	29	0.91mi
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	24d	1	0.94mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	24d	1	0.94mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	24d	1	0.98mi
1979 N Vista Ln Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,200	$1.34	24d	1	1.01mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	4d	1	1.08mi
1256 E Jahns Dr Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	3.0	2094	$2,199	$1.05	5d	1	1.09mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	24d	1	1.18mi
750 W Torino Pl Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	2007	$3,550	$1.77	24d	1	1.23mi
1265 E Kingman St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,099	$1.12	5d	1	1.24mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	1.26mi
919 N Gilbert Ave Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,975	$1.21	5d	1	1.33mi
1131 E Trinity Pl Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,650	$1.03	24d	1	1.37mi
928 N Pueblo Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,910 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,910 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,910 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,910 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,910 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,910 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,910 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,910 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,910 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,910 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,910 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,910 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,910 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,910 Active 41 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,654
• − Property taxes: −$3,389
• − Insurance: −$1,130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − Depreciation: −$6,572
• Taxable loss: −$1,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$254
• After-tax cash flow: $2,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with upgraded appliances and custom cabinetry. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Install outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal
• Both Install a front door mat — Enhances curb appeal and adds a welcoming touch

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Install outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install a front door mat — Enhances curb appeal and adds a welcoming touch ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B