1223 Clyesdale Dr · Guthrie, OK 73044

$206,928

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Land public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2024 4,800 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The MITCHELL plan is loaded with curb appeal with its welcoming covered front porch and inviting front yard landscaping. This home features an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a spacious master suite, a stunning kitchen fully equipped with energy-efficient appliances, generous counter space, and roomy pantry. Home is currently under construction with anticipated completion in July.

Key facts

• <open floor plan>
• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• <COVERED FRONT PORCH>
• <OPEN FLOOR PLAN>
• <ENERGY-EFFICIENT APPLIANCES>

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-14/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Es (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 278 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $173,678 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,435
• Equity at exit: $30,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $20,368
• Equity at exit: $17,891

Cash invested: $57,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,085
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,122/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $206,725

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,732
• Closing costs: $6,208
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1211 Clydesdale Dr Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,625	$1.28	1d	1	0.01mi
1221 Colt Dr Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,645	$1.57	3d	1	0.13mi
1201 Stallion Dr Guthrie, OK	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,000	$1.37	11d	1	0.15mi
406 S Pine St Guthrie, OK	4.0	1.0	1272	$1,400	$1.10	1d	1	0.57mi
520 E Springer Ave Guthrie, OK	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,300	$1.19	23d	1	0.73mi
208 E Oklahoma Ave Guthrie, OK	2.0	2.0	1800	$1,450	$0.81	1d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2024-04-01
   listed $206,928 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,122 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,122 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,591
• − Property taxes: −$2,122
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,667
• − Management: −$1,667
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,020
• Taxable loss: −$3,561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$855
• After-tax cash flow: $841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guthrie, OK
• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-02 Pending — MLSOK
• 2024-04-01 Listed $206,928 MLSOK

Property tax history

+212100.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,122 · +212100.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.