591 S 1st Pl · Show Low, AZ 85901

$345,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2000 7,840 sqft lot Est $333k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful location nestled in the trees! Open and bright floor plan with spacious living areas. Welcoming & warm kitchen that provides ample cabinet space and countertops. Large pantry for food storage. Split bedrooms. Inviting, fenced, and delightful backyard for relaxing outside. Great neighborhood that is close to shopping, restaurants and professional services. Remodeled in 2022. New floors, roof, and paint.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.18 acres; Road maintenance by city; Subdivision: Timber Ridge; Directions available
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Metered water; Individual electric meter (APS); Natural gas available; Power available
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Double wide; Not on leased land
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Stemwall foundation; Shingle roof; Double pane windows
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered deck; Covered patio; Patio; Landscaped yard; Tall pines on lot; In the trees setting; Other outbuilding; Gutters and downspouts; Street paved; Partly fenced with chain link fence; Private adjoining property

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in dishwasher; Freezer; Gas range; Microwave; Pantry; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Kitchen/dining room combo
• Bedrooms: Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Double vanity; Full bath with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central A/C; Forced air heating; Natural gas water heater
• Interior features: CO detector; Smoke detector; Split bedroom floor plan; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikolaus Homestead Elementary School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #371 of 1,109 statewide, top 34%, 389 students, 42% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 895 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,083 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,640
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
391 Timber Ridge Loop	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,681 (+0%)	5mo	$312,000	$186	86
180 Timber Ridge Loop	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	11mo	$335,000	$187	75
561 S 2nd St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,569 (-7%)	17mo	$300,000	$191	72
590 S 1St Pl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-10%)	13mo	$300,000	$199	71
621 S 2nd St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	66
640 S 8th St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	10mo	$322,800	$206	64
711 S 1St St	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-7%)	22mo	$330,000	$210	63
820 S 9th Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-9%)	19mo	$210,000	$137	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-48,724
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-33,665
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 895
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $972/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,575

Max offer price $345,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $213	+0% $115	+5% $18	+10% $-80
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $8	+0% $115	+5% $223	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $289	-0.5pp $203	base $115	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
660 S 6th Ave Show Low, AZ	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,300	$1.15	45d	1	0.53mi
341 N 4th Ave Show Low, AZ	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,195	$1.22	15d	1	0.73mi
311 S 16th Ave Unit 1545774P Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1797	$4,355	$2.42	15d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $345,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $345,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $345,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $345,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $345,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $345,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $345,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $345,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,000 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-05-24
    listed $345,000 Active
19. 2024-04-30
    soldstatus $331,000 Closed 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Beautiful location nestled in the trees! Open and bright floor plan with spacious living areas. Welcoming & warm kitchen that provides ample cabinet space and countertops. Large pantry for food storage. Split bedrooms. Inviting, fenced, and delightful backyard for relaxing outside. Great neighborhood that is close to shopping, restaurants and professional services. Remodeled in 2022. New floors, roof, and paint.

20. 2024-04-30
    soldstatus $331,000

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Beautiful location nestled in the trees! Open and bright floor plan with spacious living areas. Welcoming & warm kitchen that provides ample cabinet space and countertops. Large pantry for food storage. Split bedrooms. Inviting, fenced, and delightful backyard for relaxing outside. Great neighborhood that is close to shopping, restaurants and professional services. Remodeled in 2022. New floors, roof, and paint.

21. 2024-04-20
    historical 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Beautiful location nestled in the trees! Open and bright floor plan with spacious living areas. Welcoming & warm kitchen that provides ample cabinet space and countertops. Large pantry for food storage. Split bedrooms. Inviting, fenced, and delightful backyard for relaxing outside. Great neighborhood that is close to shopping, restaurants and professional services. Remodeled in 2022. New floors, roof, and paint.

22. 2024-04-05
    listed $339,000 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Beautiful location nestled in the trees! Open and bright floor plan with spacious living areas. Welcoming & warm kitchen that provides ample cabinet space and countertops. Large pantry for food storage. Split bedrooms. Inviting, fenced, and delightful backyard for relaxing outside. Great neighborhood that is close to shopping, restaurants and professional services. Remodeled in 2022. New floors, roof, and paint.

23. 2022-04-27
    soldstatus $190,000
24. 2014-11-07
    soldstatus $112,000
25. 2006-06-14
    soldstatus $145,000
26. 2004-07-22
    soldstatus $103,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,277 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,305/yr (+$109/mo · 134.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$972
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,612
• − Management: −$2,612
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$4,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,112
• After-tax cash flow: $2,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+235.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $345,000 WMMLS
• 2024-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $331,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-30 Sold (MLS) $331,000 WMMLS
• 2024-04-20 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2024-04-05 Listed $339,000 WMMLS
• 2022-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $972 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.