Rodessa IV H Plan · Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$317,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,986 sqft · SingleFamily · 145 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

- Brick and siding - Open Floor Plan - Four Bedroom, 2 Bathrooms - Recessed can lighting in kitchen - Walk-in pantry - Double master vanity - Separate Master Shower

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Double master vanity
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECESSED CAN LIGHTING
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DOUBLE MASTER VANITY
• SEPARATE MASTER SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $317,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $323,762.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $318k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-601 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: St Martin East Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #18 of 375 statewide, top 5%, 685 students, 100% FRL); St. Martin Middle School (math 44% / reading 39%, grade F, #53 of 179 statewide, top 30%, 995 students, 100% FRL); St Martin High School (math 65% / reading 49%, grade C, #8 of 197 statewide, top 4%, 1,283 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 892 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $207,112 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.96%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,762
• List price: $317,990
• Delta: -1.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7277 Pencarrow Cir	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,986 (0%)	2mo	$323,151	$163	94
7270 Pencarrow Cir	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,986 (0%)	3mo	$328,824	$166	93
12140 Walker Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,986 (0%)	4mo	$321,454	$162	93
2113 Toulouse St	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,992 (+0%)	0mo	$245,000	$123	82
7719 Claymont Cir	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,851 (-7%)	1mo	$314,800	$170	81
12161 Walker Rd	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,204 (+11%)	1mo	$332,055	$151	80
7258 Pencarrow Cir	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,092 (+5%)	4mo	$325,195	$155	79
7725 Claymont Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-7%)	3mo	$302,550	$164	75
12141 Walker Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,204 (+11%)	2mo	$332,290	$151	74
7621 Falcon Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (-5%)	0mo	$299,995	$159	73
11436 Memphis Cir	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,986 (0%)	3mo	$323,500	$163	71
2121 Beauvoir St	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,697 (-15%)	3mo	$239,000	$141	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-94,191
• Equity at exit: $48,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-144,941
• Equity at exit: $27,993

Cash invested: $90,653 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $303,990 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 145 d
• This list price: 63% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 892
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,698
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$405 /mo · $4,856/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,832

Max offer price $236,758

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-378	-5% $-489	+0% $-601	+5% $-713	+10% $-825
Rent	-10% $-765	-5% $-683	+0% $-601	+5% $-519	+10% $-438
Rate	-1.0pp $-438	-0.5pp $-519	base $-601	+0.5pp $-685	+1.0pp $-771

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,941
• Closing costs: $9,713
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2401 Esplanade St Unit B Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,225	$0.98	70d	1	0.25mi
11404 Harrison Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,950	$1.41	70d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-07-27
   days on market $317,990 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-07-25
   days on market $317,990 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-07-24
   days on market $317,990 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-07-23
   days on market $317,990 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-07-22
   days on market $317,990 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-07-21
   days on market $317,990 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   days on market $317,990 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-07-16
   days on market $317,990 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $317,990 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-07-14
    days on market $317,990 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-07-13
    days on market $317,990 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-07-12
    days on market $317,990 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-07-11
    days on market $317,990 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-07-10
    days on market $317,990 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-07-09
    days on market $317,990 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-07-08
    days on market $317,990 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-07-07
    days on market $317,990 Active 125 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    days on market $317,990 Active 124 DOM
19. 2026-07-05
    days on market $317,990 Active 123 DOM
20. 2026-07-04
    days on market $317,990 Active 122 DOM
21. 2026-07-03
    days on market $317,990 Active 121 DOM
22. 2026-07-02
    days on market $317,990 Active 120 DOM
23. 2026-07-01
    days on market $317,990 Active 119 DOM
24. 2026-06-30
    days on market $317,990 Active 118 DOM
25. 2026-06-29
    days on market $317,990 Active 117 DOM
26. 2026-06-28
    days on market $317,990 Active 116 DOM
27. 2026-06-28
    days on market $317,990 Active 115 DOM
28. 2026-06-27
    days on market $317,990 Active 114 DOM
29. 2026-06-25
    days on market $317,990 Active 112 DOM
30. 2026-06-23
    days on market $317,990 Active 110 DOM
31. 2026-06-21
    days on market $317,990 Active 109 DOM
32. 2026-06-18
    days on market $317,990 Active 106 DOM
33. 2026-06-17
    days on market $317,990 Active 105 DOM
34. 2026-06-16
    days on market $317,990 Active 104 DOM
35. 2026-06-15
    days on market $317,990 Active 103 DOM
36. 2026-06-14
    days on market $317,990 Active 101 DOM
37. 2026-06-13
    days on market $317,990 Active 100 DOM
38. 2026-06-10
    days on market $317,990 Active 98 DOM
39. 2026-06-09
    days on market $317,990 Active 97 DOM
40. 2026-06-08
    days on market $317,990 Active 96 DOM
41. 2026-06-07
    days on market $317,990 Active 95 DOM
42. 2026-06-05
    days on market $317,990 Active 92 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $317,990 Active 91 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $317,990 Active 90 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $317,990 Active 89 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $317,990 Active 88 DOM
47. 2026-05-30
    days on market $317,990 Active 87 DOM
48. 2026-03-05
    listed $317,990 Active 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    - Brick and siding - Open Floor Plan - Four Bedroom, 2 Bathrooms - Recessed can lighting in kitchen - Walk-in pantry - Double master vanity - Separate Master Shower

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,136
• − Property taxes: −$4,856
• − Insurance: −$1,619
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$9,419
• Taxable loss: −$13,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,157
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both New flooring — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the home ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary St Martin East Elementary School B MS #18/375 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle St Martin Upper Elementary F MS #100/375 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 High St Martin High School C MS #8/197 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Gulf Hills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #7310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Hills, MS
• County: Jackson County · 146,926 people
• City population: 43,240
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $317,990 Zillow