14424 State Route 38 · Fair Haven, NY 13156

$269,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,630 sqft · Other public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1890 7.80 ac lot $103/sqft · at area comps Est $356k · 24% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Step back in time with this charming 1890 home offering space, character, and endless potential. Situated on just under 4 acres, this 5-bedroom, 2 full bath home Highlights a ton of Natural woodwork throughout and features a spacious layout with a large living room, additional family room, dining room, Brand new heating, newer windows throughout, first floor laundry, and a first-floor bedroom which could also serve as office space! A closed 3-season porch adds extra space, while the updated windows throughout bring in plenty of natural sunlight. * Heating has been updated in the last few Months with a high efficiency hot water boiler! A full Heating system has also been added to the second

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Updated windows
• Spacious layout

Tags

• NATURAL WOODWORK
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• CLOSED 3-SEASON PORCH
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• FULL GENERATOR SYSTEM
• DETACHED 2-3 CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity and storage; Circular driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank for sewer; Electric service
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing construction; Stone foundation; Shingle roof; Residential on a corner, irregular agricultural lot; Frontage on a city street
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; Built with stone foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Concrete driveway; Gravel driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Built-in oven; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air; Hot water heating; Multiple heating units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate formal dining room; Separate formal living room; Country-style kitchen with island; Natural woodwork; Sunroom / Florida room; Other convertible bedroom (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Propane water heater; Generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#881 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Red Creek Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #415 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $269,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,374
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -24.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $140,206
• Equity at exit: $215,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $393,633
• Equity at exit: $438,437

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13156

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,192/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,482

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $451	-5% $375	+0% $298	+5% $222	+10% $146
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $185	+0% $298	+5% $411	+10% $524
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $367	base $298	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $269,900 Active 1113-char remark
2. 2026-01-09
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-05
   historical
4. 2025-11-13
   price $299,000
5. 2025-10-29
   price $309,000
6. 2025-09-30
   listed $319,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,192 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,192 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$5,192
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,745
• − Management: −$2,745
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$165
• After-tax cash flow: $3,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Creek Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,249
• Composite: 41.35/100
• National rank: #3495
• State rank: #415 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fair Haven

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #881
• US rank: #17161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,108

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 5% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.57%
• Current HPI: 372.8237
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $269,900 CNYIS
• 2026-01-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $299,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $309,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $319,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,192 · +66.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.