12920 Copperas Ln · Short Pump, VA 23233

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1987 6,594 sqft lot $11/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * OPEN HOUSE ON SUNDAY 9/28 FROM 1-4 * * * Come see this open floor plan with HUGE amount of Kitchen Cabinet Storage. Island Bar separates the kitchen and great room area. The island is HUGE and only adds more storage underneath. Perfect for entertaining with this open floorplan and large liveable space. One level living in the West End * * note the grab Bars in the Master Bath. This house has a ramp and is handicap accessible. Perfect for anyone who wants to say goodbye to stairs or looking for an open floorplan with plenty of kitchen space opening onto a back deck with wooded backyard.

Key facts

• 6,594 sq ft lot
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area recorded (value available)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $136

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Shingle roof; Cedar and frame construction
• Construction: Built (actual) year recorded; Cedar and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Zoned RTH

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedrooms present (details not provided)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One full bath on the first level with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Resale condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $857 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.3% in Short Pump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#3 in VA, #79 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.39%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $386,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12921 Church Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (+0%)	2mo	$385,000	$273	88
12916 Copperas Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,534 (+9%)	5mo	$363,000	$237	78
2608 Tracewood Cir	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,372 (-2%)	1mo	$420,000	$306	77
12928 Copperas Ln	0.04mi	3/3.0	1,596 (+14%)	1mo	$380,000	$238	70
12708 Copperas Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+10%)	7mo	$425,000	$274	66
2417 Crystal Ridge Rd	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,526 (+8%)	1mo	$385,000	$252	58
2829 Brandon Creek Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+14%)	10mo	$435,000	$270	56
2003 Ridge Stone Ct	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,456 (+4%)	6mo	$420,000	$288	54
2413 Bridgeview Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,502 (+7%)	0mo	$430,000	$286	52
2424 Bridgehaven Ter	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+6%)	2mo	$427,000	$285	51
2409 Bridgehaven Ter	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,485 (+6%)	1mo	$422,000	$284	49
2016 Ridge Stone Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+14%)	2mo	$441,000	$275	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $37,346
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $115,447
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23233

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,648/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $857

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2612 Tracewood Cir Henrico, VA	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,412	$1.48	14d	1	0.38mi
2316 Horsley Dr Henrico, VA	3.0	2.5	1596	$2,462	$1.54	44d	1	0.53mi
2900 Bywater Dr Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,926	$2.10	10d	20	0.61mi
12521 Hillgate Ln Henrico, VA	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,400	$1.47	3d	1	0.66mi
2914 Port View Ct Henrico, VA	3.0	3.5	1788	$2,300	$1.29	10d	1	0.78mi
2701 Main Sail Ct Henrico, VA	2.0	2.5	1248	$2,000	$1.60	44d	1	0.78mi
1704 Taft Pl Unit B Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,795	$1.78	12d	1	1.07mi
2508 Sutton Pl Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,295	$1.69	17d	1	1.08mi
1703 Taft Pl Henrico, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,995	$1.43	44d	1	1.14mi
3807 Chase Wellesley Ct Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,180	$2.49	2d	51	1.14mi
10800 Smithers Ct Henrico, VA	2.0	2.5	1428	$1,850	$1.30	24d	1	1.18mi
2400 Milhaven Dr Henrico, VA	2.0–3.0	1.5	1056	$1,835	$1.74	2d	53	1.19mi
1 Milhaven Sq Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	979	$2,315	$2.36	2d	44	1.24mi
1713 Misty Dawn Ct Henrico, VA	3.0	2.5	1360	$2,225	$1.64	3d	1	1.27mi
1706 Sheldrake Ct Henrico, VA	3.0	3.0	1860	$2,650	$1.42	3d	1	1.29mi
12651 Three Chopt Rd Henrico, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1147	$4,069	$3.55	3d	7	1.37mi
12651 Three Chopt Rd Henrico, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1105	$3,830	$3.47	44d	4	1.37mi
4000 Spring Oak Dr Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,410	$2.47	2d	52	1.39mi
2200 Lauderdale Dr Henrico, VA	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,495	$1.66	14d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-08
   remarks 338-char remark
2. 2026-06-08
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,648
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,183
• − Management: −$2,183
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $8,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,131
• After-tax cash flow: $8,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Short Pump

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #79

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 31,775
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,582
• Household income: $125,665
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 806.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 18% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.81%
• Current HPI: 378.4514
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.26%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+40.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $125,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $326,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $196,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-19 Sold (MLS) $196,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-11-19 Sold (MLS) $196,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-09-12 Listed $198,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-09-12 Listed $198,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-09-02 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-02-28 Listed $215,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-02-28 Listed $215,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $209,850 Public Records
• 2005-11-22 Sold (MLS) $209,850 CVRMLS
• 2005-11-22 Sold (MLS) $209,850 CVRMLS
• 2005-09-14 Listed $209,850 CVRMLS
• 2005-09-14 Listed $209,850 CVRMLS
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $88,960 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,648 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.