13747 Squall Ln · Hudson, FL 34669

$296,449

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,453 sqft · SingleFamily · 147 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,824 sqft lot 2-car garage $172/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Blackbird at 13747 Squall Lane in Palm Wind! This thoughtfully designed single-story home features an open living space that flows effortlessly through the dining area and great room creating a welcoming space for everyday connection. The kitchen offers generous workspace with a large pantry while staying open to the main living areas for easy entertaining. A private primary suite is tucked away with a spacious bathroom and two walk-in closets as well as a dual sink vanity, providing a calm and comfortable retreat. Two secondary bedrooms are conveniently located near a shared full bathroom, offering flexibility for guests or daily living. The laundry room sits between the garage and kitchen for added convenience. An open patio extends the living space outdoors, ideal for quiet mornings or relaxing evenings. Palm Wind in Hudson, Florida blends small-town coastal charm with modern community living. Enjoy planned amenities including a pool, cabana, tot lot, open lawn, butterfly garden, and dog park. Hudson offers natural escapes, old fishing village roots, and a welcoming atmosphere along Florida's beautiful nature coast. Additional Highlights Include: window blinds throughout the whole house, and all appliances included.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Open patio
• Butterfly garden

Tags

• CLOSE TO AMENITIES
• SOUTH FACING LOT
• OPEN PATIO
• BUTTERFLY GARDEN
• DOG PARK

🏗️ New construction. The $296,449 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,373.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-662 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,046 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.30%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,373
• List price: $296,449
• Delta: -2.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12227 Tempest Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	0mo	$299,999	$206	96
13974 Blustery Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,453 (0%)	3mo	$305,999	$211	84
12415 Whisk Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	5mo	$310,999	$214	81
11927 Foxfire Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	1mo	$322,500	$230	81
13548 Marilyn Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+3%)	6mo	$299,900	$200	56
12173 Isle Royale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	0mo	$284,990	$183	55
12197 Isle Royale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	4mo	$295,772	$190	52
12300 Great Basin Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	4mo	$294,740	$189	50
12200 Isle Royale Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	5mo	$291,268	$187	50
12230 Great Basin Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	2mo	$299,990	$192	49
12252 Great Basin Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	3mo	$296,772	$190	49
12214 Great Basin Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	3mo	$289,990	$186	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-91,541
• Equity at exit: $45,532

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-133,490
• Equity at exit: $26,403

Cash invested: $85,504 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $325,995 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 201 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,601
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,581/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$172
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,889

Max offer price $209,509

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-451	-5% $-557	+0% $-662	+5% $-768	+10% $-874
Rent	-10% $-824	-5% $-743	+0% $-662	+5% $-581	+10% $-501
Rate	-1.0pp $-509	-0.5pp $-585	base $-662	+0.5pp $-742	+1.0pp $-822

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,343
• Closing costs: $9,161
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,950	$1.34	44d	1	0.47mi
14033 Bream Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	78d	1	0.86mi
12909 Walnut Tree Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$1,860	$1.04	71d	1	1.00mi
12834 Lake Tree Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	29d	1	1.07mi
12834 Lake Tree Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	32d	1	1.07mi
13315 Golf Ridge Pl Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	10d	1	1.07mi
13315 Golf Ridge Pl Unit NA Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	43d	1	1.07mi
12639 Skipper Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,550	$1.21	5d	1	1.11mi
13236 Molitor Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	7d	1	1.27mi
13240 Prince Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,170	$1.22	10d	1	1.33mi
12509 Cavalier Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,800	$1.61	44d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedLiving area listed as 1,453 (builder source); total building area 1,906 (builder source)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle GroupMonthly HOA approximately $172.33 (quarterly fee of $517)Association approval requiredHOA includes pool and trashCommunity amenities: pool, playground, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, community mailboxPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Security: Fence restrictions (per HOA)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableFiber optics availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion July 31, 2026)South-facing
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction by Taylor Morrison (model: Blackbird)
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioHurricane shuttersPaved road accessCommunity sidewalks and street lightsCommunity mailboxDog parkPlaygroundPoolDeed-restricted community

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closetsWindow treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerInside laundryIrrigation equipment

HOA detail $172/mo · $2,064/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $296,449 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $296,449 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $296,449 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $296,449 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $296,449 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $296,449 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $296,449 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $296,449 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $296,449 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $296,449 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $296,449 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $296,449 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $296,449 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $296,449 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $296,449 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $323,999 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $323,999 Active 122 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $323,999 Active 121 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $323,999 Active 120 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $323,999 Active 118 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $323,999 Active 117 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $323,999 Active 116 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $323,999 Active 115 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $323,999 Active 114 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $323,999 Active 112 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $323,999 Active 111 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $323,999 Active 110 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $323,999 Active 109 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $323,999 Active 108 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $323,999 Active 107 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $323,999 Active 106 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $323,999 Active 105 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $323,999 Active 104 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $323,999 Active 103 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $323,999 Active 102 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $323,999 Active 101 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $323,999 Active 100 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $320,999 Active 98 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $320,999 Active 97 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $320,999 Active 96 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $320,999 Active 95 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $320,999 Active 92 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $317,999 Active 90 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $317,999 Active 89 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $317,999 Active 87 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $317,999 Active 85 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $317,999 Active 84 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $317,999 Active 83 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $317,999 Active 82 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $317,999 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,106
• − Property taxes: −$4,581
• − Insurance: −$1,527
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − HOA: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$8,884
• Taxable loss: −$13,492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,238
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a high ROI with potential for landscaping and interior finishing touches to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior finishing touches — Finishing touches can make the home more appealing and can be done in phases to maximize ROI. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chango Elementary School A+ NY #133/2,108 Nat'l #798/41,679 Middle Crews Lake Middle School. D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Hudson High School F FL #264/667 Nat'l #7,501/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedLiving area listed as 1,453 (builder source); total building area 1,906 (builder source)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle GroupMonthly HOA approximately $172.33 (quarterly fee of $517)Association approval requiredHOA includes pool and trashCommunity amenities: pool, playground, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, community mailboxPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Security: Fence restrictions (per HOA)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableFiber optics availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion July 31, 2026)South-facing
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction by Taylor Morrison (model: Blackbird)
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioHurricane shuttersPaved road accessCommunity sidewalks and street lightsCommunity mailboxDog parkPlaygroundPoolDeed-restricted community

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closetsWindow treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerInside laundryIrrigation equipment

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $315,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Listed $315,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid