13747 Squall Ln · Hudson, FL 34669

$258,967

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,453 sqft · SingleFamily · 192 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,824 sqft lot 2-car garage $172/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Blackbird at 13747 Squall Lane in Palm Wind! This thoughtfully designed single-story home features an open living space that flows effortlessly through the dining area and great room creating a welcoming space for everyday connection. The kitchen offers generous workspace with a large pantry while staying open to the main living areas for easy entertaining. A private primary suite is tucked away with a spacious bathroom and two walk-in closets as well as a dual sink vanity, providing a calm and comfortable retreat. Two secondary bedrooms are conveniently located near a shared full bathroom, offering flexibility for guests or daily living. The laundry room sits between the garage and kitchen for added convenience. An open patio extends the living space outdoors, ideal for quiet mornings or relaxing evenings. Palm Wind in Hudson, Florida blends small-town coastal charm with modern community living. Enjoy planned amenities including a pool, cabana, tot lot, open lawn, butterfly garden, and dog park. Hudson offers natural escapes, old fishing village roots, and a welcoming atmosphere along Florida's beautiful nature coast. Additional Highlights Include: window blinds throughout the whole house, and all appliances included.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Open patio
• Butterfly garden

Tags

• CLOSE TO AMENITIES
• SOUTH FACING LOT
• OPEN PATIO
• BUTTERFLY GARDEN
• DOG PARK

🏗️ New construction. The $258,967 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,427.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-665 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 466 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,717 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.34%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,427
• List price: $258,967
• Delta: -15.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12219 Tempest Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	0mo	$250,000	$172	96
12227 Tempest Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	2mo	$299,999	$206	95
13974 Blustery Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,453 (0%)	4mo	$305,999	$211	83
11927 Foxfire Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	2mo	$322,500	$230	80
12083 Isle Royale Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	0mo	$283,600	$182	54
12107 Isle Royale Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	1mo	$295,000	$189	54
12143 Isle Royale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	1mo	$296,990	$190	54
12159 Isle Royale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	2mo	$275,000	$176	54
12173 Isle Royale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	2mo	$284,990	$183	54
12230 Great Basin Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	3mo	$299,990	$192	48
12252 Great Basin Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	4mo	$296,772	$190	48
12214 Great Basin Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	4mo	$289,990	$186	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-91,740
• Equity at exit: $45,540

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-133,907
• Equity at exit: $26,408

Cash invested: $85,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $311,495 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 178 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,602
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,581/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$172
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,890

Max offer price $209,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-454	-5% $-560	+0% $-665	+5% $-771	+10% $-877
Rent	-10% $-827	-5% $-746	+0% $-665	+5% $-585	+10% $-504
Rate	-1.0pp $-512	-0.5pp $-588	base $-665	+0.5pp $-745	+1.0pp $-825

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,357
• Closing costs: $9,163
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,950	$1.34	90d	1	0.47mi
12840 Payne Stewart Way Hudson, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,100	$1.21	7d	1	0.74mi
14033 Bream Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	123d	1	0.86mi
12909 Walnut Tree Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$1,860	$1.04	116d	1	1.00mi
12834 Lake Tree Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	77d	1	1.07mi
12834 Lake Tree Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	75d	1	1.07mi
13315 Golf Ridge Pl Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,000	$1.22	5d	1	1.07mi
13315 Golf Ridge Pl Unit NA Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	88d	1	1.07mi
12639 Skipper Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,550	$1.21	50d	1	1.11mi
13236 Molitor Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	53d	1	1.27mi
13240 Prince Cir Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,170	$1.22	55d	1	1.33mi
12509 Cavalier Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,800	$1.61	10d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedLiving area listed as 1,453 (builder source); total building area 1,906 (builder source)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle GroupMonthly HOA approximately $172.33 (quarterly fee of $517)Association approval requiredHOA includes pool and trashCommunity amenities: pool, playground, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, community mailboxPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Security: Fence restrictions (per HOA)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableFiber optics availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion July 31, 2026)South-facing
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction by Taylor Morrison (model: Blackbird)
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioHurricane shuttersPaved road accessCommunity sidewalks and street lightsCommunity mailboxDog parkPlaygroundPoolDeed-restricted community

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closetsWindow treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerInside laundryIrrigation equipment

HOA detail $172/mo · $2,064/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $258,967 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $258,967 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   price $258,967 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $269,999 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $269,999 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $269,999 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $269,999 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $269,999 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $269,999 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $269,999 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-10-30
    price $269,999 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-10-29
    days on market $273,999 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-10-28
    days on market $273,999 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-10-27
    days on market $273,999 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $273,999 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-10-25
    days on market $273,999 Active 178 DOM
17. 2026-10-24
    days on market $273,999 Active 177 DOM
18. 2026-10-23
    price $273,999 Active 176 DOM
19. 2026-10-23
    days on market $275,999 Active 176 DOM
20. 2026-10-22
    days on market $275,999 Active 175 DOM
21. 2026-10-21
    days on market $275,999 Active 174 DOM
22. 2026-10-20
    days on market $275,999 Active 173 DOM
23. 2026-10-19
    days on market $275,999 Active 172 DOM
24. 2026-10-18
    days on market $275,999 Active 171 DOM
25. 2026-10-17
    days on market $275,999 Active 170 DOM
26. 2026-10-16
    days on market $275,999 Active 169 DOM
27. 2026-10-15
    days on market $275,999 Active 168 DOM
28. 2026-10-14
    days on market $275,999 Active 167 DOM
29. 2026-10-13
    days on market $275,999 Active 166 DOM
30. 2026-10-12
    days on market $275,999 Active 165 DOM
31. 2026-10-11
    days on market $275,999 Active 164 DOM
32. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $275,999 Active 163 DOM
33. 2026-10-09
    days on market $277,999 Active 162 DOM
34. 2026-10-08
    days on market $277,999 Active 161 DOM
35. 2026-10-08
    days on market $277,999 Active 160 DOM
36. 2026-10-06
    days on market $277,999 Active 159 DOM
37. 2026-10-05
    days on market $277,999 Active 158 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $277,999 Active 157 DOM
39. 2026-10-04
    days on market $277,999 Active 156 DOM
40. 2026-10-02
    days on market $277,999 Active 155 DOM
41. 2026-10-01
    days on market $277,999 Active 154 DOM
42. 2026-09-30
    days on market $277,999 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-09-29
    days on market $277,999 Active 152 DOM
44. 2026-09-28
    days on market $277,999 Active 151 DOM
45. 2026-09-27
    days on market $277,999 Active 150 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    pricedays on market $277,999 Active 148 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $296,449 Active 147 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $296,449 Active 146 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $296,449 Active 145 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $296,449 Active 144 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,109
• − Property taxes: −$4,581
• − Insurance: −$1,527
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − HOA: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$8,885
• Taxable loss: −$13,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,247
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a high ROI with potential for landscaping and interior finishing touches to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior finishing touches — Finishing touches can make the home more appealing and can be done in phases to maximize ROI. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chango Elementary School A+ NY #133/2,108 Nat'l #798/41,679 Middle Crews Lake Middle School. D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Hudson High School F FL #264/667 Nat'l #7,501/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty includedLiving area listed as 1,453 (builder source); total building area 1,906 (builder source)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle GroupMonthly HOA approximately $172.33 (quarterly fee of $517)Association approval requiredHOA includes pool and trashCommunity amenities: pool, playground, dog park, sidewalks, street lights, community mailboxPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAttached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Security: Fence restrictions (per HOA)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableFiber optics availablePhone availableUnderground utilitiesSprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residenceOne storyUnder construction (projected completion July 31, 2026)South-facing
• Construction: Block constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew construction by Taylor Morrison (model: Blackbird)
• Exterior features: Front porchPatioHurricane shuttersPaved road accessCommunity sidewalks and street lightsCommunity mailboxDog parkPlaygroundPoolDeed-restricted community

Interior

• Kitchen: RangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanWalk-in closetsWindow treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerInside laundryIrrigation equipment

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $315,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Listed $315,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid