The Glacier (N304) Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$245,040

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily · 174 Days on market

↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unwind after a long day in the Glacier's relaxing primary suite, complete with a spa-like primary bathroom.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 174 days

Tags

• SPA-LIKE PRIMARY BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $245,040 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,390.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $215,635 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,390
• List price: $245,040
• Delta: -17.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18405 Sunrise Pines Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+12%)	14mo	$229,999	$146	35
1607 E Pine Lake Cir E	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,284 (-9%)	11mo	$178,888	$139	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-75,661
• Equity at exit: $44,342

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-115,560
• Equity at exit: $25,713

Cash invested: $83,269 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,165 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,461/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,602

Max offer price $247,442

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-140	-5% $-242	+0% $-345	+5% $-448	+10% $-551
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-431	+0% $-345	+5% $-260	+10% $-174
Rate	-1.0pp $-195	-0.5pp $-270	base $-345	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,348
• Closing costs: $8,922
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	44d	1	0.17mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	25d	1	0.41mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.87mi
18544 Meadow Point Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,950	$1.33	44d	1	0.90mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	44d	1	0.93mi
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	13d	1	0.93mi
16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1700	$1,571	$0.92	44d	1	0.93mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	1.00mi
607 Lake View Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,499	$1.25	44d	1	1.02mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	1.23mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	44d	1	1.45mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	44d	1	1.49mi
124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1624	$2,900	$1.79	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,040 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,040 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $245,040 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,040 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,040 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,040 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,040 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $265,040 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $266,040 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $266,040 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $266,040 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $266,040 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $266,040 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $266,040 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,990 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,990 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $234,990 107-char remark

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18. 2026-05-07
    price $230,990 107-char remark

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19. 2026-05-02
    price $249,040 107-char remark

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20. 2026-04-11
    price $246,040 107-char remark

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21. 2026-04-02
    price $256,040 107-char remark

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22. 2026-04-01
    price $252,040 107-char remark

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23. 2026-03-20
    price $244,190 107-char remark

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24. 2026-03-12
    price $249,190 107-char remark

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25. 2026-03-08
    price $251,190 107-char remark

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26. 2026-03-04
    price $267,190 107-char remark

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27. 2026-03-03
    price $265,190 107-char remark

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28. 2026-02-20
    price $258,940 107-char remark

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29. 2026-02-13
    price $256,940 107-char remark

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30. 2026-02-13
    status Active 107-char remark

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31. 2026-02-12
    historical 107-char remark

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32. 2026-02-07
    status Active 107-char remark

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33. 2026-01-30
    historical 107-char remark

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34. 2026-01-29
    price $223,740 107-char remark

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35. 2026-01-24
    status Active 107-char remark

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36. 2026-01-23
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37. 2026-01-15
    status Active 107-char remark

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38. 2026-01-15
    price $233,740 107-char remark

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39. 2026-01-11
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40. 2026-01-08
    status Active 107-char remark

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41. 2026-01-05
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42. 2026-01-04
    status Active 107-char remark

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43. 2026-01-04
    price $232,740 107-char remark

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44. 2025-12-21
    historical 107-char remark

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45. 2025-12-20
    status Active 107-char remark

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46. 2025-12-20
    price $230,440 107-char remark

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47. 2025-12-18
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48. 2025-12-12
    status Active 107-char remark

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49. 2025-12-12
    price $229,440 107-char remark

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50. 2025-12-04
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ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,658
• − Property taxes: −$4,461
• − Insurance: −$1,487
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,078
• − Management: −$2,078
• − Depreciation: −$8,651
• Taxable loss: −$9,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,265
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $230,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $249,040 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $246,040 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $256,040 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $252,040 Zillow
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $244,190 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $249,190 Zillow
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $251,190 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $267,190 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $265,190 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $258,940 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $256,940 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-30 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $223,740 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $233,740 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-05 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $232,740 Zillow
• 2026-01-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-21 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $230,440 Zillow
• 2025-12-20 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $229,440 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $229,740 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $255,740 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $229,740 Zillow
• 2025-11-20 Listed $255,740 Zillow