9484 Hwy 99 Frontage Rd #36 · Morada, CA 95212

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 217 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1972 Good condition $47/sqft · 44% below area Est $126k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Natural light
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.4% vs local median 3.4% in Morada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#596 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Davis Elementary (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,335 of 1,571 statewide, top 85%, 327 students, 85% FRL); Morada Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #376 of 498 statewide, top 76%, 746 students, 84% FRL); Ronald E. Mcnair High (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,768 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 59% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 267 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 138d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.21%
• DSCR: 4.35
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,500
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -44.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5100 N Hwy 99 #24	1.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	4mo	$124,000	$86	55
5100 N Highway 99 #141	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-4%)	4mo	$127,000	$88	50
5100 N Hwy 99 #159	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-4%)	6mo	$100,000	$69	48
5100 N Highway 99 #8	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+4%)	12mo	$130,000	$83	43
4900 N Hwy 99 #65	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-4%)	13mo	$94,000	$65	42
4900 N Highway 99 #185	1.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	20mo	$55,000	$38	42
5100 N Hwy 99 #182	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+4%)	14mo	$164,000	$105	41
4900 N Highway 99 #197	1.07mi	2/3.0	1,536 (+2%)	19mo	$145,000	$94	41
5100 N Highway 99 #194	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-10%)	7mo	$129,900	$97	36
5100 N Highway 99 #202	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,625 (+8%)	17mo	$160,000	$98	32
9454 N Highway 99 #20	1.07mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	18mo	$80,000	$62	28
5100 N Highway 99 #139	1.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+12%)	16mo	$126,500	$75	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $62,736
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.66×
• Total profit: $150,222
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $1,162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $696

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,210	-5% $1,186	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,138	+10% $1,114
Rent	-10% $991	-5% $1,076	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,248	+10% $1,333
Rate	-1.0pp $1,197	-0.5pp $1,180	base $1,162	+0.5pp $1,144	+1.0pp $1,125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	826	$2,178	$2.64	0d	11	0.33mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,314	$2.18	162d	1	0.33mi
4142 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1063	$2,291	$2.16	123d	1	0.33mi
4030 E Morada Ln Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1259	$2,375	$1.89	0d	15	0.40mi
9326 Lembert Dome Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,645	$1.78	143d	1	0.46mi
4006 Angelina Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1775	$2,750	$1.55	143d	1	0.56mi
9360 Pioneer Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,800	$1.84	10d	1	0.91mi
3461 Sina Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$3,000	$2.25	184d	1	1.06mi
10331 Floyd Ln Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	2250	$1,050	$0.47	110d	1	1.08mi
10400 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1342	$4,500	$3.35	155d	1	1.11mi
8224 Shay Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	2108	$2,700	$1.28	138d	1	1.11mi
10424 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1509	$4,500	$2.98	1d	1	1.12mi
10424 Skynyrd Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1509	$4,500	$2.98	164d	1	1.12mi
3231 Strickland Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,695	$1.77	51d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-31
   days on market $70,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-10-30
   days on market $70,000 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-10-29
   days on market $70,000 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-10-28
   days on market $70,000 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-10-27
   days on market $70,000 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-10-26
   days on market $70,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-10-25
   days on market $70,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-10-24
   days on market $70,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-10-23
   days on market $70,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-10-22
    days on market $70,000 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-10-21
    days on market $70,000 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-10-20
    days on market $70,000 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-10-19
    days on market $70,000 Active 205 DOM
14. 2026-10-18
    days on market $70,000 Active 204 DOM
15. 2026-10-17
    days on market $70,000 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-10-16
    days on market $70,000 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-10-15
    days on market $70,000 Active 201 DOM
18. 2026-10-14
    days on market $70,000 Active 200 DOM
19. 2026-10-13
    days on market $70,000 Active 199 DOM
20. 2026-10-12
    days on market $70,000 Active 198 DOM
21. 2026-10-11
    days on market $70,000 Active 197 DOM
22. 2026-10-10
    days on market $70,000 Active 196 DOM
23. 2026-10-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 195 DOM
24. 2026-10-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 194 DOM
25. 2026-10-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 193 DOM
26. 2026-10-06
    days on market $70,000 Active 192 DOM
27. 2026-10-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 191 DOM
28. 2026-10-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 190 DOM
29. 2026-10-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 189 DOM
30. 2026-10-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 188 DOM
31. 2026-10-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 187 DOM
32. 2026-09-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 186 DOM
33. 2026-09-29
    days on market $70,000 Active 185 DOM
34. 2026-09-28
    days on market $70,000 Active 184 DOM
35. 2026-09-27
    days on market $70,000 Active 183 DOM
36. 2026-09-25
    days on market $70,000 Active 181 DOM
37. 2026-09-24
    days on market $70,000 Active 180 DOM
38. 2026-09-23
    days on market $70,000 Active 179 DOM
39. 2026-09-22
    days on market $70,000 Active 178 DOM
40. 2026-09-21
    days on market $70,000 Active 177 DOM
41. 2026-09-20
    days on market $70,000 Active 176 DOM
42. 2026-09-19
    days on market $70,000 Active 175 DOM
43. 2026-09-18
    days on market $70,000 Active 174 DOM
44. 2026-09-17
    days on market $70,000 Active 173 DOM
45. 2026-09-16
    days on market $70,000 Active 172 DOM
46. 2026-09-15
    days on market $70,000 Active 171 DOM
47. 2026-09-14
    days on market $70,000 Active 170 DOM
48. 2026-09-13
    days on market $70,000 Active 169 DOM
49. 2026-09-12
    days on market $70,000 Active 168 DOM
50. 2026-09-11
    days on market $70,000 Active 167 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,081
• − Management: −$2,081
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $13,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,286
• After-tax cash flow: $10,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,500–$22,500 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. A fresh coat of paint and some updates to the kitchen and flooring would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale Install new flooring — Improves aesthetics and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Davis Elementary F CA #1,335/1,571 Nat'l #35,051/41,679 Middle Morada Middle F CA #376/498 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Ronald E. Mcnair High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Morada

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #19273

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morada, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 796,965 people
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B