7644 Buffet Bight Ct · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$673,607

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3-car garage $300/sqft · 21% below area Est $850k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious single-story home features a formal dining room with elegant arched doorways, followed by an open layout among the Great Room, kitchen and breakfast nook, with access to a covered lanai. In addition to the owner's suite, are three secondary bedrooms and a three-bay garage for versatile needs.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Arched doorways
• Open layout

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• ARCHED DOORWAYS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $674k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $439k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (43.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $384k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1554 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 112d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($593k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $384,083 (43.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.31%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $849,574
• List price: $673,607
• Delta: -20.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4911 Sparkling Sea Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,356 (+5%)	2mo	$825,000	$350	80
16325 Tradewind Ter	0.18mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,455 (+9%)	4mo	$775,000	$316	64
4711 Winsome Way	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,337 (+4%)	4mo	$564,999	$242	60
5238 Coral Reef Way	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,202 (-2%)	3mo	$670,000	$304	56
5282 Grove Mill Loop	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,056 (-8%)	2mo	$437,000	$213	56
17022 Cresswind Ter	0.57mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,318 (+3%)	3mo	$690,000	$298	56
4708 Trento Pl	0.41mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,087 (-7%)	3mo	$816,000	$391	56
4967 Seafoam Trl	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,439 (+9%)	0mo	$725,000	$297	53
4921 Surfside Cir	0.71mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,318 (+3%)	0mo	$830,000	$358	52
16808 Harvest Moon Way	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,537 (+13%)	0mo	$536,000	$211	46
5056 Simons Ct	0.37mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,563 (+14%)	4mo	$1,123,400	$438	45
4940 Surfside Cir	0.71mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,560 (+14%)	3mo	$880,000	$344	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-223,587
• Equity at exit: $100,437

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-370,892
• Equity at exit: $58,241

Cash invested: $188,610 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 78 active · 46 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.5 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $678,495 ($290/sqft)
• Median days on market: 162 d
• This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +30.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1554
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,532
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$842 /mo · $10,104/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$807
• Net cashflow: $-1,621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,893

Max offer price $439,062

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,155	-5% $-1,388	+0% $-1,621	+5% $-1,854	+10% $-2,086
Rent	-10% $-1,924	-5% $-1,773	+0% $-1,621	+5% $-1,469	+10% $-1,317
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,282	-0.5pp $-1,450	base $-1,621	+0.5pp $-1,795	+1.0pp $-1,973

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,402
• Closing costs: $20,208
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19226 Cherrystone Way #102 , FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,995	$1.42	6d	1	0.03mi
15950 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	9d	1	0.26mi
15950 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	119d	1	0.26mi
15934 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,900	$2.05	119d	1	0.28mi
16464 Whale Grey Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,000	$2.05	119d	1	0.29mi
5319 White Sand Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,850	$2.01	119d	1	0.35mi
15835 Tradewind Ter Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2356	$8,900	$3.78	93d	1	0.37mi
5127 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2016	$3,700	$1.84	7d	1	0.39mi
16020 Sunny Day Dr Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$3,000	$2.12	93d	1	0.40mi
15716 Barefoot Beach Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2027	$7,500	$3.70	119d	1	0.43mi
5225 Blue Crush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$5,000	$2.70	119d	1	0.47mi
5161 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$4,000	$1.82	119d	1	0.48mi
5316 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	117d	1	0.50mi
5304 Grove Mill Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2056	$3,200	$1.56	119d	1	0.55mi
15522 Islandwalk Ave Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2016	$5,000	$2.48	9d	1	0.59mi
5242 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2586	$3,700	$1.43	2d	1	0.60mi
5242 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2586	$3,700	$1.43	9d	1	0.60mi
16426 Paynes Mill Dr Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2419	$3,950	$1.63	115d	1	0.61mi
16921 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2787	$3,800	$1.36	65d	1	0.67mi
5329 Halewood Ct Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2728	$3,600	$1.32	65d	1	0.69mi
5409 Coral Reef Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$3,500	$1.89	9d	1	0.70mi
15520 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$3,100	$2.19	9d	1	0.71mi
15161 Serene Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1840	$3,800	$2.07	119d	1	0.71mi
15021 Sea Salt Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$8,500	$3.48	119d	1	0.72mi
5537 Tidal Breeze Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	119d	1	0.73mi
4909 Oyster Pearl St Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2800	$10,000	$3.57	119d	1	0.77mi
17218 Reserva Dr Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,350	$1.29	82d	1	0.77mi
15263 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,800	$1.49	74d	1	0.80mi
17343 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	5.0	3.0	2674	$3,300	$1.23	0d	1	0.81mi
15016 Misty Water Xing Unit NA Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$3,195	$1.73	93d	1	0.82mi
17419 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,595	$1.27	111d	1	0.83mi
17220 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,700	$1.48	80d	1	0.84mi
15018 Oxford Grey Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$5,500	$2.71	119d	1	0.84mi
14736 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	111d	1	0.87mi
17436 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$3,100	$1.68	6d	1	0.87mi
15167 Sea Salt Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$5,500	$2.25	119d	1	0.88mi
4708 Motta Ct Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$12,000	$6.25	111d	1	0.88mi
14753 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,600	$1.38	106d	1	0.88mi
15228 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,000	$1.56	119d	1	0.89mi
14775 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1879	$2,600	$1.38	115d	1	0.90mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-20
• Financial info: List price $573,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces (3-car garage total)
• Home design: Single-family home (spec new construction)
• Construction: Built as part of the Princeton plan
• Exterior features: Located at 7644 Buffet Bight Ct, Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan name: Princeton (spec home)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2244 finished area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $673,607 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $673,607 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $673,607 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $673,607 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $673,607 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $673,607 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $673,607 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $673,607 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $673,607 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $673,607 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $673,607 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $673,607 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $673,607 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $673,607 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $673,607 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $671,607 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $671,607 Active 135 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $671,607 Active 134 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $671,607 Active 133 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $671,607 Active 132 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $671,607 Active 131 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $671,607 Active 130 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $671,607 Active 129 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $671,607 Active 128 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $671,607 Active 127 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $671,607 Active 126 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $671,607 Active 125 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $671,607 Active 124 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $671,607 Active 123 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $671,607 Active 122 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $671,607 Active 121 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $671,607 Active 120 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $671,607 Active 119 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $671,607 Active 118 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $671,607 Active 117 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    price $671,607 Active 116 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $573,999 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $573,999 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $573,999 Active 114 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $573,999 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $573,999 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $573,999 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $573,999 Active 110 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $573,999 Active 109 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $573,999 Active 108 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $573,999 Active 105 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $573,999 Active 103 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $573,999 Active 102 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $573,999 Active 98 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $573,999 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,732
• − Property taxes: −$10,104
• − Insurance: −$3,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,687
• − Management: −$3,687
• − Depreciation: −$19,596
• Taxable loss: −$32,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,700
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This spacious single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. Minor updates like painting the exterior and replacing the kitchen faucet can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home look more inviting ↑
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can add a modern touch and improve functionality ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and add value for both buyers and renters ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary B.d. Gullett Elementary School A FL #211/2,144 Nat'l #2,011/41,679 Middle R. Dan Nolan Middle School A FL #38/571 Nat'l #472/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-05-20
• Financial info: List price $573,999

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces (3-car garage total)
• Home design: Single-family home (spec new construction)
• Construction: Built as part of the Princeton plan
• Exterior features: Located at 7644 Buffet Bight Ct, Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan name: Princeton (spec home)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 2244 finished area)