233 Rambling Ridge Rd · Brandenburg, KY 40108

$197,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 188 Days on market

Built 2024 2.26 ac lot Est $241k · 18% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller authorizes broker to advertise a $2,500 flooring allowance with an acceptable offer. Discover peaceful country living at 233 Rambling Ridge Rd in Brandenburg, KY! Built in 2024, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers approximately 1,568 sq ft of modern living space on 2.26 acres in Meade County. The open-concept layout features a spacious kitchen, comfortable living area, and split-bedroom floor plan. Enjoy mature trees, scenic surroundings, and room to spread out while still being a short drive to Brandenburg, Fort Knox, and the Louisville metro area. With new construction, acreage, and no HOA, this property offers flexibility for outdoor living, hobbies, or extra space to enjoy. If

Key facts

• 2.26 acre lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 188 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.1% in Brandenburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#370 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $173,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.79%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,472
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
233 Rambling Ridge Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	0mo	$194,000	$124	100
205 Nelson Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+5%)	17mo	$309,900	$189	65
230 Ghen Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,514 (-3%)	4mo	$232,500	$154	62
236 Ghen Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (-8%)	12mo	$185,900	$129	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-20,839
• Equity at exit: $29,448

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,688
• Equity at exit: $17,076

Cash invested: $55,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40108

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,036
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$247 /mo · $2,962/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $197,500

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,375
• Closing costs: $5,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2390 Brandenburg Rd Brandenburg, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	23d	1	0.32mi
2390 Brandenburg Rd Brandenburg, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,899	$1.27	14d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $197,500
3. 2026-02-17
   price $199,500
4. 2025-11-14
   price $200,000
5. 2025-11-07
   price $209,900
6. 2025-11-01
   price $215,900
7. 2025-10-02
   listed $219,900 Active
8. 2025-09-11
   historical
9. 2025-05-22
   listed $224,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,063
• − Property taxes: −$2,962
• − Insurance: −$988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − Depreciation: −$5,745
• Taxable loss: −$1,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$267
• After-tax cash flow: $2,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meade County
• NCES district ID: 2104050
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,628
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #4265
• State rank: #21 of 165 in KY

Livability — Brandenburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #17569

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,469

Population outlook (Meade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,977 people
• By 2030: 26,162 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 24,029 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 21,658 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 16,994 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 15,586 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.25%
• Current HPI: 205.7001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $197,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $199,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $200,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $209,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $215,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $219,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $224,900 Metro Search MLS