1411 E Birch St · Globe, AZ 85501

$212,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,549 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1967 10,360 sqft lot Est $276k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single Family Residence For Sale in Globe AZ

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Composition roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Dirt front yard; Dirt backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.8% in Globe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#145 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Globe Unified District (4208) (town): math 11% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #206 of 249 in AZ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Copper Rim Elementary School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #796 of 1,109 statewide, top 72%, 765 students, 56% FRL); High Desert Middle School (math 9% / reading 18%, grade F, #167 of 218 statewide, top 77%, 407 students, 55% FRL); Globe High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,722
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 N Third St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-4%)	7mo	$275,000	$184	69
670 S East St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+3%)	9mo	$285,000	$178	49
500 S Fourth St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	21mo	$137,500	$95	40
566 E Carico St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+8%)	10mo	$139,000	$83	39
351 E Cedar St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,342 (-13%)	22mo	$250,000	$186	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,445
• Equity at exit: $31,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,502
• Equity at exit: $18,373

Cash invested: $59,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85501

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,114
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,312/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $212,500

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $388	-5% $328	+0% $268	+5% $208	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $189	+0% $268	+5% $347	+10% $426
Rate	-1.0pp $375	-0.5pp $322	base $268	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,125
• Closing costs: $6,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
877 E Sycamore St Unit A Globe, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	26d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 44-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $212,500 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,402 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$91/yr (+$8/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,903
• − Property taxes: −$1,312
• − Insurance: −$1,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$6,182
• Taxable loss: −$299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$72
• After-tax cash flow: $3,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Globe Unified District (4208)
• NCES district ID: 0403500
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,829
• Composite: 13.87/100
• National rank: #9485
• State rank: #206 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Globe

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #17153

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Globe, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 12,353

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.96%
• Current HPI: 296.458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $212,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,312 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.