5200 Midway Rd. Trlr 44 Rd · Caldwell, ID 83607

$146,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $139k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated and move-in ready, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in the quiet and desirable Midway Park community on a rented lot. Fresh paint and brand-new flooring throughout create a clean, modern feel the moment you step inside. The open-concept layout offers a spacious living area highlighted by custom beams, adding warmth and character. The stylish kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining, featuring newer appliances, sleek floating shelves, and a built-in beverage fridge. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a cozy office nook, a generously sized walk-in closet filled with natural light and ample shelving, and a privat

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Newer appliances
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• MOVE-IN READY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CUSTOM BEAMS
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• FLOATING SHELVES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homeowner tax exemption (per tax records)
• HOA & community: Located in Midway Park subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (covered) with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home on a rented lot; Built in 1985; Single-story (main level living)
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Paved road access; Located in a mobile home park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Granite counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms — all on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $147k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Canyon Elementary School (math 36% / reading 55%, grade D-, #194 of 357 statewide, top 55%, 636 students, 50% FRL); Vallivue Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #40 of 169 statewide, top 26%, 122 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,696 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.78%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,392
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5200 Midway Rd #44 Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	10mo	$139,900	$121	91
5200 Midway Unit Trir 20	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,014 (-12%)	3mo	$70,000	$69	78
5016 E Ustick Rd Trlr 25	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,076 (-7%)	6mo	$54,900	$51	50
5016 E Ustick Rd #11	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (+3%)	10mo	$85,000	$72	49
16901 Prairie Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+12%)	3mo	$399,000	$310	44
16917 Prairie Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,263 (+10%)	9mo	$358,000	$283	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,090
• Equity at exit: $21,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $58,540
• Equity at exit: $12,701

Cash invested: $41,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83607

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$770
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$184 /mo · $2,204/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,285

Max offer price $146,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $574	-5% $523	+0% $472	+5% $422	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $324	-5% $398	+0% $472	+5% $547	+10% $621
Rate	-1.0pp $546	-0.5pp $510	base $472	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,725
• Closing costs: $4,407
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5218 Guitar Ln Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	920	$1,422	$1.55	3d	6	0.08mi
4901 Maid Jessica St Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	15d	1	0.20mi
401 Canyon Village Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1161	$2,758	$2.38	3d	31	0.40mi
6903 Noah Ct Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	990	$1,550	$1.57	15d	1	0.55mi
209 Abraham Way Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.0	840	$1,350	$1.61	24d	1	0.58mi
6921 Noah Ct Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	22d	1	0.59mi
4209 Saylor Ln Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,925	$1.85	22d	1	0.61mi
12288 Varga St Caldwell, ID	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,500	$1.73	3d	1	0.61mi
7012 Noah Dr Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	940	$1,550	$1.65	22d	1	0.62mi
4203 Saylor Ln Unit B Caldwell, ID	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,199	$1.76	22d	1	0.62mi
4203 Saylor Ln Caldwell, ID	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,575	$2.06	12d	1	0.62mi
12554 Brun St Caldwell, ID	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,400	$1.64	22d	1	0.72mi
3916 Kirby Cir Caldwell, ID	3.0	2.0	1231	$2,150	$1.75	15d	1	0.74mi
16723 N Pamelas Loop Unit 102 Nampa, ID	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	22d	1	0.94mi
16715 N Pamelas Ct Apt 104 Nampa, ID	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.94mi
16716 N Pamelas Ct Apt 103 Nampa, ID	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	15d	1	0.94mi
16801 N Pamelas Loop Unit 101 Nampa, ID	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,475	$1.48	24d	1	0.95mi
11399 W Pamelas Ln Unit 103 Nampa, ID	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	24d	1	0.99mi
16882 N Pamelas Loop Nampa, ID	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	24d	1	1.05mi
12086 W Greenstone St Nampa, ID	2.0	2.0	980	$1,475	$1.51	3d	3	1.34mi
5012 Hamlet Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	998	$1,550	$1.55	3d	2	1.39mi
10890 Blue River Ln Nampa, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	832	$1,696	$2.04	3d	8	1.43mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $146,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
8. 2026-05-06
   price $146,900
9. 2026-05-01
   listed $147,000 Active
10. 2015-04-24
    listed $25,000
11. 2007-04-17
    soldstatus
12. 2006-10-04
    listed $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,229
• − Property taxes: −$2,204
• − Insurance: −$734
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$4,273
• Taxable income: $3,539
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$849
• After-tax cash flow: $4,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vallivue School District
• NCES district ID: 1600600
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 38.3/100
• National rank: #4229
• State rank: #48 of 92 in ID

Livability — Caldwell

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #10145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caldwell, ID
• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 76,816
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 35,491
• Household income: $85,399
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 446.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.23%
• Current HPI: 310.4118
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+434.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — IMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $146,900 IMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $147,000 IMLS
• 2015-04-24 Listed $25,000 IMLS
• 2007-04-17 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2006-10-04 Listed $27,500 IMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $288 · +86.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.