16079 Yarnell St Unit C18 · Los Angeles, CA 91342

$285,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1973 $195/sqft · 12% above area Est $255k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable Rancho Hermoso community of Sylmar. This inviting residence offers a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for everyday living. Enjoy a bright living area, spacious kitchen with ample cabinetry, and generously sized bedrooms designed for relaxation. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and easy freeway access, this home provides both comfort and accessibility. The community features well-kept grounds and amenities for residents to enjoy. A great opportunity for affordable homeownership in a prime Sylmar location—don’t miss out!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Well-kept grounds
• Built 1973

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• WELL-KEPT GROUNDS
• AMENITIES FOR RESIDENTS
• PRIME SYLMAR LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Herrick Avenue Elementary (381 students, 88% FRL); Olive Vista Middle (946 students, 91% FRL); San Fernando Senior High (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #609 of 1,170 statewide, top 52%, 1,745 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 67% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 183 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $285k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.32%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,000
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: 11.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16079 Yarnell Unit D15	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	18mo	$218,000	$162	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-32,178
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-31,943
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Los Angeles: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+22

LARSO + JCEO 2023; relocation for substantial remodel evictions.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91342

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $452	+0% $354	+5% $255	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $121	-5% $237	+0% $354	+5% $470	+10% $586
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $426	base $354	+0.5pp $280	+1.0pp $205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16601 Foothill Blvd Rancho Cascades, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,325	$2.82	0d	13	0.63mi
13811 Glenoaks Blvd Rancho Cascades, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$2,395	$3.06	17d	1	0.69mi
16736 Nicklaus Dr #39 Rancho Cascades, CA	2.0	2.0	1061	$3,650	$3.44	45d	1	0.81mi
15232 Foothill Blvd #157 Sylmar, CA	3.0	3.0	1442	$3,795	$2.63	22d	1	0.87mi
13035 San Fernando Rd Unit 1 Sylmar, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,445	$2.44	26d	1	1.08mi
15106 Roxford St Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,875	$2.88	0d	1	1.08mi
13637 Fellows Ave Unit 5 Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,979	$2.98	45d	1	1.08mi
13637 Fellows Ave Unit 5 Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,979	$2.98	1d	1	1.08mi
13615 Fellows Ave Sylmar, CA	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1094	$2,979	$2.72	22d	2	1.09mi
15082 Roxford St Sylmar, CA	1.0	1.0	1860	$1,800	$0.97	9d	1	1.12mi
13408 Glenoaks Blvd Unit 13408 Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1479	$3,395	$2.30	24d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $285,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $285,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-04-17
    listed $285,000 Active 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained home in the desirable Rancho Hermoso community of Sylmar. This inviting residence offers a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for everyday living. Enjoy a bright living area, spacious kitchen with ample cabinetry, and generously sized bedrooms designed for relaxation. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and easy freeway access, this home provides both comfort and accessibility. The community features well-kept grounds and amenities for residents to enjoy. A great opportunity for affordable homeownership in a prime Sylmar location—don’t miss out!

12. 2021-09-08
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed Sale 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    A FAMILY HOME IN AN ALL AGE FAMILY PARK. NICE LAYOUT WITH 3 BEDROOMS AND ENCLOSED PORCH. GRANITE COUNTERTOPS WITH SPACIOUS LIVING AREA. ATTRACTIVELY PRICED TO SELL FAST. PARK INCLUDES CLUB HOUSE AND POOL.

13. 2021-07-29
    listed $110,000 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    A FAMILY HOME IN AN ALL AGE FAMILY PARK. NICE LAYOUT WITH 3 BEDROOMS AND ENCLOSED PORCH. GRANITE COUNTERTOPS WITH SPACIOUS LIVING AREA. ATTRACTIVELY PRICED TO SELL FAST. PARK INCLUDES CLUB HOUSE AND POOL.

14. 2018-07-25
    soldstatus $57,000 Closed Sale
15. 2018-06-17
    status Pending Sale
16. 2018-06-10
    price $65,000
17. 2018-06-02
    listed $69,500 Active
18. 2012-02-26
    historical
19. 2011-08-25
    listed $49,500 Active
20. 2010-12-26
    historical
21. 2010-01-26
    listed $75,000 Active
22. 2008-11-02
    historical
23. 2007-11-13
    listed $94,500
24. 2007-11-02
    historical
25. 2007-09-01
    listed $94,500
26. 2005-04-30
    soldstatus $64,000
27. 2005-02-22
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,823
• − Management: −$2,823
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $4,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Angeles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,403
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4875
• State rank: #223 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Angeles

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #9237

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Angeles, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 3,838,149
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 93,301
• Household income: $98,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2559.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 23% White 12% Asian 7% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 32% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -921.77%
• Current HPI: 440.1462
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+307.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2021-09-08 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CRMLS
• 2021-07-29 Listed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2018-07-25 Sold (MLS) $57,000 CRMLS
• 2018-06-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-06-10 Price Changed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2018-06-02 Listed $69,500 CRMLS
• 2012-02-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-08-25 Listed $49,500 CRMLS
• 2010-12-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-01-26 Listed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2008-11-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-11-13 Listed $94,500 CRMLS
• 2007-11-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-09-01 Listed $94,500 CRMLS
• 2005-04-30 Sold (MLS) $64,000 CRMLS
• 2005-02-22 Listed $69,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $481 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.