4787 forwood Ave · Moclips, WA 98571

$260,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1957 3,238 sqft lot $417/sqft · 38% below area Est $417k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Stylishly decorated by a professional designer with a breezy coastal flair, this charming cottage is the kind of place that makes you exhale the moment you walk in. Light, curated, and fully furnished, it feels like a true retreat from the everyday. Beach access is just a ten-minute walk from your front door, putting razor clamming, beachcombing, and epic Pacific sunsets well within reach. Seabrook is just minutes away with its boutique shops, restaurants, and beloved Pacific Northwest resort-town atmosphere -- all the charm, without the Seabrook price tag. Whether you are searching for your own personal slice of the coast or a turnkey vacation rental investment, this cottage delivers on bo

Key facts

• 3,238 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 41/100 on livability (#607 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Beach Elementary School (110 students, 84% FRL); North Beach Junior High School (162 students, 78% FRL); North Beach Senior High School (177 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $260k implies a 364% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $177,940 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,432
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -37.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48300 Pacific Ave	0.33mi	1/1.0	576 (-8%)	6mo	$420,000	$729	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.88% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-40,810
• Equity at exit: $51,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,959
• Equity at exit: $45,725

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98571

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,266/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,997

Max offer price $229,687

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-98	+0% $-172	+5% $-245	+10% $-319
Rent	-10% $-312	-5% $-242	+0% $-172	+5% $-101	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-105	base $-172	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $260,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $260,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $260,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $260,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $260,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 58 DOM
18. 2026-04-02
    listed $275,000 Active
19. 2017-09-06
    soldstatus $56,000 Sold
20. 2017-07-24
    status Pending Inspection
21. 2017-07-21
    status Pending
22. 2017-07-03
    listed $62,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,266 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,548 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,282/yr (+$107/mo · 101.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥76°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,266
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$6,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,622
• After-tax cash flow: $-437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Moclips

• Score: 41/100
• State rank: #607
• US rank: #27130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moclips, WA
• City population: 98
• Population (ZIP): 52

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Current HPI: 231.3572
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+343.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $275,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-06 Sold (MLS) $56,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-03 Listed $62,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,266 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.