31396 Rivera St · French Valley, CA 92596

$619,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1999 7,405 sqft lot Est $678k · 9% under $46/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS SPACIOUS HOUSE HAS VAULTED CEILINGS, NICE SIZE BEDROOMS, BEAUTIFUL TILE IN THE FAMILY RM/KITCHEN AREA, BATHRM AND LAUNDRY AREA, AS WELL AS CEILING FANS IN EVERYROOM. KITCHEN FEATURES TILE COUNTER TOPS & LARGE ISLAND W/ BUILT IN CABINETS. FRONT & BACKYARD FULLY LANDSCAPED W/ A REDWOOD JACUZZI FOR RELAXATION, AND THE BACKYARD INCLUDES A DOG RUN.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Dual sinks
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• VERSATILE DEN
• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DUAL SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Special assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Dutch Village association; Annual association fee: $133; Secondary association fee: $35 monthly; Community features include street lighting and sidewalks; Association amenities: call for rules

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with direct access; 2 garage spaces; Driveway parking; Total 2 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/Public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Planned development; One story; Front entry; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: House (single-family); Vinyl and wood fencing; Front yard; Sprinkler system; Wood patio/porch; No pool; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Built-in range; Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Water heater unit; Formal dining area, breakfast nook, and eating area in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main floor); All bedrooms on one level; Main floor bedroom; Total of 4 main-level bedrooms; Primary suite
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Main floor full bath; Separate tub and shower; Bathtub; Double sinks in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Quartz counters; High ceilings (9 feet+); Ceiling fan(s); Open floor plan; Kitchen open to family room; Remodeled kitchen; Kitchen island; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the home (individual room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $620k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $432k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (44.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: French Valley Elementary (880 students, 24% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$107k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $620k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $344,281 (44.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $678,321
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31429 Amsterdam	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,921 (-6%)	3mo	$640,000	$333	79
36143 Tahoe St	0.32mi	3/2.0	2,122 (+4%)	1mo	$600,000	$283	77
36171 Joltaire	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,122 (+4%)	2mo	$589,000	$278	72
36123 Joltaire	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,122 (+4%)	1mo	$625,000	$295	72
31572 Adour	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,866 (-8%)	5mo	$600,000	$322	66
31238 Jan Steen Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,838 (-10%)	2mo	$689,000	$375	50
36415 Flare	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,861 (-9%)	2mo	$600,000	$322	49
31832 Gimbal Way	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,861 (-9%)	11mo	$620,000	$333	43
36390 W Flare	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,861 (-9%)	11mo	$620,000	$333	41
31656 Haute Ct	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,749 (-14%)	4mo	$600,000	$343	38
35908 Curie Ct	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,749 (-14%)	5mo	$583,000	$333	37
31343 Tulette	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,236 (+10%)	6mo	$579,000	$259	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $259,419
• Equity at exit: $558,544

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $798,775
• Equity at exit: $1,204,522

Cash invested: $173,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,443 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,251
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,764/yr
• Insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-1,066

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,792

Max offer price $431,657

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $155,000
• Closing costs: $18,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36264 Capri Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1999	$3,300	$1.65	17d	1	0.34mi
36308 Cosimo Ln Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1550	$2,695	$1.74	19d	1	0.50mi
37184 Running Springs Rd Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	1991	$3,550	$1.78	23d	1	0.94mi
35350 Marabella Ct Unit 35350 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,300	$1.71	1d	1	1.04mi
31624 Chamise Ln Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2409	$3,350	$1.39	4d	1	1.26mi
31624 Chamise Ln Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2409	$3,350	$1.39	19d	1	1.26mi
31647 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1711	$3,195	$1.87	16d	1	1.27mi
31629 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$3,099	$1.81	21d	1	1.28mi
36996 Camino Springs Ave Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$3,595	$1.80	2d	1	1.29mi
36980 Camino Springs Ave Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2253	$3,299	$1.46	1d	1	1.31mi
30315 Brittle Brush St Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,195	$2.03	43d	1	1.41mi
30072 Bonita Springs St Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,200	$2.03	12d	1	1.41mi
36594 Camino Springs Ave Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1870	$3,350	$1.79	10d	1	1.44mi
36594 Camino Springs Ave Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1870	$3,299	$1.76	1d	1	1.44mi
36575 Camino Springs Ave Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2064	$3,300	$1.60	2d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $619,999 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $619,999 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $619,999 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $619,999 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $619,999 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,712 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,948/yr (+$162/mo · 70.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,764
• − Insurance: −$3,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,305
• − Management: −$3,305
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$18,036
• Taxable loss: −$24,478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,875
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+258.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $619,999 CRMLS
• 2009-12-15 Sold (MLS) $200,000 CRMLS
• 2009-11-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2009-09-02 Price Changed $209,900 CRMLS
• 2009-07-27 Listed $219,900 CRMLS
• 2006-05-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-04-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-11-02 Listed $439,500 CRMLS
• 2005-11-02 Listed $439,500 CRMLS
• 2001-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $209,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,764 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.