6423 Julia Dr · Milton, FL 32570

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1961 8,712 sqft lot Est $188k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REAL SHARP HOME IN NEW SKYLINE! NEW PAINT INSIDE,STORM WINDOWS,ALUMINUM CARPORT,ROOF & AC UNIT HAVE BEEN REPLACE ALUMINUM EAVES,CHAIN LINK FENCE,CALL BILL FOR MORE INFO

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Brick home
• Hvac system

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• METAL ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in the SKYLINE HEIGHTS subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space; Driveway with space for about 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Ranch-style, single-story home; Built in 1961; Zoned for single-family residential
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Slab foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Chain link and privacy fencing; City street frontage with paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 8' x 10'); Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor (each about 10' x 10')
• Flooring: Tile and carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor (approx. 6' x 7')
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heat controls
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Private yard (see Exterior for details)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.6% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#166 in FL, #2,480 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. H. Rhodes Elementary School (math 55% / reading 47%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 812 students, 79% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 36% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100; list at $150k implies a 149800% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.37%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6409 Julia Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,000 (0%)	12mo	$191,000	$191	86
6017 Syrcle Ave	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,050 (+5%)	15mo	$170,000	$162	73
5869 Byrom St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (0%)	3mo	$183,000	$183	69
5910 Independence Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	995 (-0%)	14mo	$167,000	$168	67
6464 Magnolia St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,051 (+5%)	2mo	$215,000	$205	66
6124 Patricia Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	913 (-9%)	10mo	$144,500	$158	60
5982 Queen St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	874 (-13%)	7mo	$175,000	$200	58
6444 Walnut St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+8%)	2mo	$190,000	$177	57
5996 Savannah Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+14%)	8mo	$199,900	$175	54
6094 Syrcle Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+12%)	10mo	$233,000	$208	54
6137 Patricia Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	864 (-14%)	11mo	$163,000	$189	50
5722 Hickory St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+9%)	19mo	$204,000	$188	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,358
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $49,821
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,130/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,193

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $622	-5% $580	+0% $538	+5% $495	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $390	-5% $464	+0% $538	+5% $612	+10% $686
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $576	base $538	+0.5pp $499	+1.0pp $459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6593 Lee St Unit B Milton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	22d	1	0.69mi
6460 Stewart St Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,500	$1.72	24d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-04-21
    price $149,900
11. 2026-03-27
    price $153,000
12. 2026-03-02
    price $155,000
13. 2026-01-09
    listed $159,000 Active
14. 2025-12-02
    status Pending
15. 2025-11-30
    historical
16. 2025-10-31
    listed $159,000 Active
17. 2019-04-30
    soldstatus $100
18. 2018-08-02
    soldstatus $820,000
19. 2001-04-02
    soldstatus $47,700
20. 2001-03-29
    soldstatus $47,700 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    REAL SHARP HOME IN NEW SKYLINE! NEW PAINT INSIDE,STORM WINDOWS,ALUMINUM CARPORT,ROOF & AC UNIT HAVE BEEN REPLACE ALUMINUM EAVES,CHAIN LINK FENCE,CALL BILL FOR MORE INFO

21. 2000-07-11
    listed $49,900 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    REAL SHARP HOME IN NEW SKYLINE! NEW PAINT INSIDE,STORM WINDOWS,ALUMINUM CARPORT,ROOF & AC UNIT HAVE BEEN REPLACE ALUMINUM EAVES,CHAIN LINK FENCE,CALL BILL FOR MORE INFO

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,130 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$114/yr (+$10/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,130
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $4,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $5,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Milton

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #2480

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 69,025
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+200.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $149,900 ECAR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $153,000 ECAR
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $155,000 ECAR
• 2026-01-09 Listed $159,000 ECAR
• 2025-12-02 Pending — NAMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $159,000 NAMLS
• 2019-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $100 Public Records
• 2018-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $820,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $47,700 Public Records
• 2001-03-29 Sold (MLS) $47,700 PARMLS
• 2000-07-11 Listed $49,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,130 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.